Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 30, 2023

Ukraine - April 30, 2023

May 01, 2023

The battle for Bakhmut enters another month, as April has concluded and Ukraine retains control over a small portion of the city. Russia advanced at a slow rate today, though notably they did secure territory on the north side of the highway leading to Ivanivske, rending the highway completely inoperable for Ukrainian troops at points. Of course, smaller roads remain open, although they are in poor condition. Likewise, Ukrainian vehicles can also go off of the roads and through the fields, though the mud situation complicates that some. Ukraine's willingness and capability to continue contesting Bakhmut despite the poor resupply conditions is surprising to me; I must admit, I have underestimated their determination on more than one occasion.

Russia launched a massive wave of missile attacks against Ukraine late at night. There's some speculation that this was in retaliation for the attack on the oil hub in Sevastopol, which o think is quite likely. Russia has launched few such attacks over the past month or two as it was clear that their campaign to knock out Ukraine's energy grid was failing, especially as the weather was warming up. While Russia's missile stockpiles are reported to be low, they have seemed to defy western expectations by always having enough for these attacks. Even operating under the assumption that Russia has larger stockpiles than the west believes, they are not infinite. Russia has been ramping up production as well, but that takes some time. In other words, attacks like the one tonight are notable because they are not something that Russia can sustain on a daily, or even weekly basis at this point in time. With Russia campaign against Ukraine's energy grid seemingly halted and with Russia trying to paint Ukraine as an aggressive state as an excuse to torpedo the Black Sea grain deal renewal in mid May, this attack seems illogical unless if it was a reaction to the Sevastopol attack. Many of the cities hit also have little effect on the current battlefield, such as Sumy.

An earlier major attack of Pavlohrad, east of the city of Dnipro, was a possible prelude to the large missile assault at night. Massive damage was done to Ukrainian ammunition stockpiles at Pavlohrad. A Russian strike hit a depot at a train station, causing several rounds of explosions. It's believed that a stockpile of Ukrainian S-300 missiles were destroyed; Ukraine's supply of these air defense missiles is fairly limited, something that Ukraine's partners have been trying to step around by providing Ukraine with western air defenses. Even so, such a blow is painful for Ukraine as the country as an immense spread of air defenses, but still doesn't have enough in terms of quantity. Pavlohrad was likely a major logistics node for Ukraine for both the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, so the damage done to Ukraine's military assets here will likely delay delivery of materials to both fronts for a bit.

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