Gabriel B
15 supporters
Ukraine - April 28, 2024

Ukraine - April 28, 2024

Apr 29, 2024

Russian forces have reportedly seized about a third of Netailove. As what is basically the end of a string of suburbs of the city of Donetsk culminating in rivers and ponds, Netailove is a naturally concluding point for this particular part of Russia's ongoing offensive. Ukraine has likely established defensive lines behind the bodies of water, in and around other settlements. But a Ukrainian defeat at Netailove would for all intents and purposes mean that Ukraine has no realistic shot of pushing back into the broader urban and suburban area around the city of Donetsk. The only other place in the region with a substantial presence of Ukraine's army is Krasnohorivka, which Russian troops are also working to capture. A defeat at Netailove would strain Ukrainian supply lines to northern Krasnohorivka, should that battle still be ongoing. All in all, it looks like Russia is about to complete clearing the area around the city of Donetsk. This will enable Russia to take better advantage of the city's considerable manufacturing and logistical capabilities, as the amount of weaponry Ukraine has to target Russian positions in the city will dwindle as the front is pushed away from the city.

Russia has now pushed beyond Ocheretyne, and has likely secured the entirety of the village. The push is over a mile to the northwest of the village, meaning that Ukraine has been unable to effectively slow Russia's breakthrough. It's not clear yet whether Russia merely took advantage of a weakness in Ukraine's lines or if they intend to continue pushing in this direction specifically. If the do, the likely target is almost certainly the key city of Pokrovsk, a major logistical hub for Ukraine, one vital to their war effort in basically all of Donetsk oblast. It is pretty behind the front at the moment but if Ukraine starts to undergo a collapse at the front, it could become a viable target for Russia eventually. Its capture would put immense strain on the UkeiNian stronghold at Vuhledar, and their positions on other key cities such as Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka. But this is all speculative; Russia would have to make it there first, and that is not a given as western military aid to Ukraine is starting to flow once again, and as Russia is burning through their (still quite formidable) stockpiles of old equipment.

Quite aware of Russia's advances, Ukraine made the delayed announcement of their defeat at three locales, Novomykhailivka, Semenivka, and Berdychi. Ukraine has not officially stated that they have lost other villages such as Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, and Soloviove yet, but Ukraine is frequently slow to admit such losses. They will probably quietly confirm their withdrawal from these villages over the next week or so.

Ukraine has moved to consolidate their positions in the Dnipro river delta. I've discussed before how Ukraine has a large number of boats incoming, and how it could help to facilitate their operations here (such as at Krynky) or at other places. For now, it seems that Ukraine is focusing on the delta, with Ukraine claiming to have taken Nestryha island. Control over the islands is murky, and outright contradictory and nonsensical at times as both Russia and Ukraine basically send boats through small channels and set up temporary camps. For the record, Nestryha island was one that I had already previously thought was largely under Ukrainian control; and it might have been. The statement may have simply been referring to a militarization of the island, or the complete eviction of Russian troops. Regardless, Ukraine is paying more attention to the region, and is apparently denying Russia from the freedom to move in a part of the delta where they previously had the option. This in turn helps to keep the city of Kherson secure, and increases the threat of Ukraine establishing an additional bridgehead.

Russia's manufacturing capability has taken a bit of a hit, as a substantial fire broke out at a KamAZ plant. KamAZ is a major manufacturer for much of the heavy industrial equipment that Russia uses. Particularly relevant to the war are the trucks that KamAZ makes. Underscoring their importance to Russian logistics, Russia has lost dozens of KamAZ trucks in combat with Ukraine.

The United States has purchased dozens of old, largely useless warplanes from Kazakhstan, which is formally Russia's ally. Kazakhstan has been modernizing their military and as part of this they bought new Russian warplanes, and are auctioning off their old, quite used, Soviet era planes. These are the same types of planes that Ukraine currently flies, though it was noted that the planes from Kazakhstan are in such a state of disrepair, that even their ability to be stripped for parts is a bit dubious. Still, there should be some salvage value from them, and the remainder could be used as decoys. That said, the United States hasn't actually stated what they plan to do with their acquisition, but there's little else I can imagine that they would use these planes for, beyond perhaps using a couple as museum pieces.

Enjoy this post?

Buy Gabriel B a coffee

More from Gabriel B