Russian sources have claimed to have scored a major breakthrough in the Bakhmut area today. The details are disputed, but it appears that a major push towards Khromove from the northeast has paid off. I find it probable that Russian troops have reached the edges of the suburb at places. Regardless of how far Russia has advanced, this heavy pressure on Khromove threatens to collapse a number of the remaining supply lines for Ukraine in the Bakhmut region. Russia advanced further within Bakhmut itself as well, further reducing the area of control that Ukraine has within the city. Russia is very much so on track to complete their conquest of the city by early May.
Prigozhin has warned that Ukraine's offensive will kick off once Ukraine loses Bakhmut, underscoring his efforts to put Russia into a more defensive posture. While he's not someone I'd necessarily refer to as unbiased, his claims to align with western reporting, which has suggested that the offensive will commence in May. Working with a very different set of resources than western intelligence agencies, I nevertheless have arrived at a very similar conclusion. Specifically, I'm leaning towards early to mid May for when the offensive will begin.
Ukraine is continuing their heightened activities in the Dnipro river delta. Russia targeted a Ukrainian position towards the mouth of the river today, which was further than where I had believed Ukrainian troops to be operating. This actually could provide Ukraine with a good angle of attack, to strike behind the rear of the Kinburn spit, which has a heavily fortified line which in effect separates it from the mainland. Now within just a few kilometers of Rybalche, Ukraine may be able to land sabotage and scouting groups behind the Kinburn spit, encouraging a Russian withdrawal as they would be cut off. This, in turn, would greatly ease Ukraine's efforts to establish a bridgehead in the Kinburn region.
Instead of approaching a compromise, the renegade EU states led by Poland have doubled down further on the exports of Ukrainian agricultural products. Today, Poland's ban was extended to additional products, including sunflower derivatives. With the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal coming up soon, this is a divide within the west that Russia is likely doing their best to take advantage of.
South Africa momentarily bucked the ICC, stating that they intend to withdraw. South Africa is scheduled to hold a BRICS summit in August. Their withdrawal from the ICC means that they would no longer be under an international obligation to arrest Putin should he opt to visit for the BRICS summit. BRICS is generally a fairly weak organization given the long-standing animosity between China and India, but should South Africa indeed withdraw, this will be one of the most prominent international events Putin will have been able to attend since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However hours later, South Africa walked back their statement. It certainly seems as if they are now weighing their options; it will be interesting to see if they stick with the ICC or withdraw at some point over the next several months.
Ukraine is taking few chances with Sudan, as the country continues to suffer from internal strife. Ukraine already had one passenger jet which was fired upon early in the conflict, and today they joined with several other governments evacuating their citizens. Dozens of Ukrainian citizens were evacuated from the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. Ukraine also helped to evacuate many Georgians (which will hopefully go some ways to improve relations between the two countries), as well as a number of Peruvian citizens. The conflict in Sudan seems to be taking the worst possible route for Russia, in that it wasn't over quickly. Russia has economic ties with both major factions, but the ongoing conflict means Russia's ability to exploit their lucrative economic deals has been greatly diminished.