Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 24, 2024

Ukraine - April 24, 2024

Apr 25, 2024

Russian sources claim that Russia is in full control over Ocheretyne, though this lacks evidence or corroborating statements from Ukraine. The town likely remains contested, with the portion by the railroad firmly under Russian control. That said, Russian troops almost certainly captured additional portions of the town today. Russia also widened their salient while reducing the Ukrainian bulge in the front, by capturing Novobakhmutivka. This, in effect, secured the southern flank of the Russian held portions of Ocheretyne. Ukraine has rushed reinforcements from the Kreminna and Bilohorivka area to Ocheretyne, a sign of how worrying the situation there is for Ukraine. Bilohorivka has been a long standing Ukrainian stronghold and has been fending off a consistent Russian push on the area for months (which has accomplished quite little). Ukraine is likely wagering that their remaining forces are Bilohorivka can still hold, but it's not an ideal situation, and underscores just how few reserves Ukraine has.

Ukraine has destroyed additional Russian energy infrastructure, launching drone strikes against a pair of oil depots in Smolensk. The fires were significant, certainly contributing to the trend of an overall decline in Russian gas and oil exports. However it's worth noting that these sorts of Russian exports are roughly on par with where they were a year ago. It's certainly a setback for Russia, which had reclaimed some of the export value thanks to finding alternate export routes and the building of infrastructure to boost these routes. But overall, Russia's energy sector is still doing fine despite the Ukrainian strikes.

Ukraine is increasing the pressure on men of that age who are abroad, stating that now they are ineligible to receive passports or identification cards. This applies to age groups exempt from the current mobilization law, particularly relevant to those ages 18-25. Poland has stated its willingness to help send Ukrainian men of fighting age back to Ukraine. From Poland's perspective, this serves multiple purposes. It helps to placate Polish nationalists, who have been chafing at the large number of Ukrainian refugees and migrants currently residing in Poland. It also helps to mend the relationship between the governments of Poland and Ukraine, a relationship which has been strained in no part due to the influence of Polish nationalists in Polish politics.

Ukrainian prosecutors working for Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies have requested the arrest of the Agricultural Minister, Mykola Solskyi. Alternatively, they have stated that they will accept a $5 million (USD) bail. He faces accusations that he both successfully appropriated state land, and that he made an attempt to do so with further state lands. He also faces accusations that he tried to destroy state documents, which proved state ownership of the land in question. Furthermore, he is alleged to, along with some co conspirators, have forged false documents to prove his ownership. The alleged crimes date back to st least 2017. He has denied the accusations and has so far refused to resign, but a draft bill has already started to circulate in the Rada to force his ouster.

Biden officially signed the foreign aid bill into law early today, and stated that aid would be shipped within hours. Seeing as some of it was already in Poland, it's possible that the beginning of the aid has already reached Ukraine. The billion dollar aid package today included nothing particularly surprising, but there was one namotable absence; ATACMS, which the Biden administration is either obligated to send or to provide a reason for not doing so in short order per the new law. However, it was reported that the March package (one of the very few coming from the United States over the past seven months) in fact included a handful of ATACMS, some of which were reportedly used for the strike on Dzhankoi in Crimea a week ago. They also reportedly used ATACMS on a second strike, near Berdyansk. In addition to the military aid finally being on the move, the EU transferred a tranche of funding, approximately €1.5 billion. This ea sort of a previously announced arrangement.

As the United States has moved towards using frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine, Russia has possibly retaliated by ordering the seizure of almost a half billion USD in assets held by the American bank, JP Morgan Chase. The litigation had been ongoing, with JP Morgan Chase suing VTB, a Russian bank, in the state of New York over it's attempt to regain access to an account that was similar in value to the assets that Russia has now ordered to be sued from JP Morgan. Russia had stated that there would be a response due to the United States moving towards using their frozen assets, and this may have been the opening piece of that response.

Moldova is in the spotlight once again, as the federal authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the pro-Russian head of the autonomous region of Gagauzia. The primary charge is illegal financing, from the Russian-backed and banned (as of 2023) Shor party.

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