Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 22, 2023

Ukraine - April 22, 2023

Apr 23, 2023

Short post tonight, as I was pretty busy tonight (also, slow news day).

Russia has likely secured all of Bakhmut east of the railroad in the western segment of the city. At the very least, they are quite close to doing so. Ukraine s defenses have just about fully collapsed here. Best case scenario for Ukraine, they can reduce the flow of Russian troops across the railroad, using it to disrupt Russian efforts to advance to the west. However, at best, this will only be a temporary measure as Russian troops continue to advance in western Bakhmut. For instance, Russian troops pushed closer to Khromove and the "road of life" today. With Russia coming closer to capturing Khromove, Ukraine's ability to keep Russian troops delayed at the railroad will be increasingly irrelevant.

Ultimately, the Ukrainian people and Russia are both awaiting Ukraine's upcoming offensive. With Russia largely bogged down in Bakhmut, this is the only place in the front experiencing any even slightly notable changes along the front. But this doesn't mean that the war has entered a cold phase; both sides are suffering from extremely high attrition rates here. The conflict in this phase may be less "exciting" from the perspective of an observer, but it is no less deadly. Ukraine's economy, and thus its people, are still being put under an immense strain to hold back Russia's army. And Russian troops (including PMC Wagner) are still taking a heavy number of casualties, further cutting into their military advantages, and reducing the chances that Russia can easily fend off a Ukrainian offensive.

Belgorod came under fire again. A second bomb was discovered in the city. Fortunately, it was unexploded. After much of the city was under lockdown, it was safely disposed of at a landfill. However, mere hours later, the city was struck when Russia fired a large volley of S-300 missiles at Kharkiv. It's not clear whether or not Russia, for the third time in three days, struck Belgorod or if Ukrainian counter fire struck the city.

Another meeting at Ramstein airbase was held between Ukraine and its allies. There was nothing particularly notable about this meeting as far as I am aware, though these meetings usually precipitate large aid packages for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials highlighted discussions regarding the training of additional troops. Czechia did make additional pledges for further tank deliveries to Ukraine, and talks were held about establishing additional tank repair and servicing centers in eastern Europe to help maintain Ukraine's fleet of tanks. Ukraine also threatened Russia with the possibility that they would face tribunals akin to the Nuremberg trials.

France has suggested that they will help to rebuild Ukraine's rail network, including the possible donation of trains. Given the different rail gauges between western Europe and Ukraine, this implies that Ukraine's rail network may be reconstructed in order to align with the gauge standard among most EU countries.

On top of their proposed partial embargo of Russia, western countries are now proposing a ban on many types of goods which happen to transit through Russia. Given Russia's vast territory, this would severely cut into Russia's economic clout. It would also increase the costs of consumer goods, as transportation costs would increase due to needing to find routes bypassing Russia. There's no indication that this plan will go through, but it is certainly being discussed.

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