Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 22, 2024

Ukraine - April 22, 2024

Apr 23, 2024

Criticism has been flying every way as Ukrainian forces effectively allowed Russian troops to seize a large portion of Ocheretyne. Some have reported that some Ukrainian defensive positions ahead of the town were simply deserted. Russian forces have pushed into the center of the town, and have taken the most important parts of Ocheretyne, such as the train station. The Russian advances has been almost entirely along the railroad, creating an awkward salient. Ukraine's inability to cut off and crush the salient points to organizational issues, manpower issues, or both at this part of the front. The looming fall of Ocheretyne opens up many paths for Russia. They could continue pushing west along the railroad towards the city and major logistical hub of Pokrovsk, they could head north to Kostyantynivka, which is also a sizable city and logistical hub adjacent to Chasiv Yar, or they could head northeast and try to snake behind the Ukrainian strongholds of Niu York and Toretsk. The latter has been said by some to be the most fortified part of the front for Ukraine, but most of their defenses are likely positioned to defend against an attack from the east, and not the west. Due to the Russian advance, Ukraine also has a salient of their own now in the area, consisting of the villages of Novobakhmutivka and Soloviove, which are situated between Ocheretyne and Berdychi. If Ukraine fails to expel Russia from Ocheretyne in short order, Ukraine will probably be forced to abandon this pair of villages as well.

Mysterious fires have hit Russia again. An industrial center outside of Moscow, and an electromechanical plant in Voronezh caught on fire, highly reminiscent of frequent and mysterious fires that have plagued Russia in the past, many of which were almost certainly Ukrainian sabotage missions. The frequency of these fires died down with time, so these are notable, especially when taking into account the likely sabotage of several western ammunition factories in recent days. This may have triggered something of a green light from Ukraine's allies to resume their sabotage operations, or perhaps an encouragement to step them up if there were no restrictions being placed on Ukraine by the west pertaining to these sorts of activities.

The United Kingdom has announced its largest military aid package for Ukraine to date, approximately £500 million in size. It includes air defense missiles and artillery, the two things Ukraine has requested the most. It also includes additional Storm Shadow missiles, armored vehicles, and other assortments. Interestingly, it includes sixty boats with various functionalities. This certainly suggests that more raids across the Dnipro river or onto the Crimean peninsula in the future are on the table. The size of the package very closely mirrors the amount that was recently reported to have been unspent due to bureaucratic issues, so this is likely a one off, and not a sign of reinvigorated British support for Ukraine. Still, it will help to compensate for a half year of minimal deliveries to Ukraine, once it eventually arrives.

A Democratic member of the House stated that aid that aid to Ukraine could arrive quicker than anyone expects, all while providing a pretty realistic timeline of several days to a couple of weeks. The messaging here is a bit contradictory, and overall doesn't really help to clarify when aid might arrive for Ukraine from the United States.

Poland has stated that they are "ready" to host American nuclear weapons, an act which would be perceived as escalatory by most. It would be however a direct response to Russia deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus. Poland has claimed to be in talks with the United States about stationing nuclear weapons in Poland, though no media nor the United States has confirmed this. I also find it rather unlikely that the United States would be willing to do so, as the current administration has only slowly ramped up aid for Ukraine and has largely tried to avoid provoking Russia in ways that wouldn't directly harm Russia's war effort (sanctions). It's worth noting here that both France and the United Kingdom have nuclear weapons; traditionally, the United Kingdom has been a bit more assertive when it comes to Russia and has tended to be one of the more hawkish NATO members, while France of late has increased rhetoric relating to Russia and Ukraine. I don't think it's likely either would deploy nuclear weapons to Poland, but I also don't think think that the possibility should be ignored either. All three nuclear NATO states I feel on their own probably won't, but combined, there is a re chance that one of them might make the decision to do so.

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