Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 21, 2023

Ukraine - April 21, 2023

Apr 22, 2023

Russia has launched a major push against Khromove. Ukrainian and Russian sources are providing very conflicting reports. The Russian side is crowing about advancing the the main highway through the area, thus putting Ukrainian troops in a cauldron (this conveniently ignores a number of other roads, such as those through Ivanivske). The Ukrainian side is claiming to have repelled the attack and to have killed a large number of Russian troops. As is ordinarily the case when there's limited information and competing narratives, I assume that the truth is somewhere in the middle, which means that Russia probably did gain ground near Khromove but at a steep cost. Rumors of a Ukrainian counteroffensive seeking to surround Russian forces in Bakhmut persist, but half of the people elevating such claims are PMC Wagner folks. Unless and until we start to see similar claims emanating from the network of milbloggers more aligned with Russia's official military, I will continue to be extremely sceptical of such claims. If Ukraine had the capability to pull off such an attack here, I feel as if they would have by now.

The other region worth touching on today is, yet again, the Dnipro river region in Lesson oblast. Russia heavily shelled much of the west bank, including regions fairly far from Ukraine's reported beachhead. This was likely an effort to deter further Ukrainian attempts at crossing the river rather than an effort to prevent supplies from making it across. For instance, settlements as far north as Tokarivka were hit, which is halfway between the cities of Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, while Ukraine crossed basically directly across from Kherson. Russia also allegedly made an effort to try to cross the river today, but they were driven back. Such raids along the river are not uncommon; what is unusual is Ukraine managing to actually maintain a very minor bridgehead. There's some speculation that Russia is responding reactively and spontaneously in region rather than in a measured and coordinated way, out of fears that this is the start of Ukraine's much vaunted upcoming offensive. I think that this is downplaying Russia too much; they know that the Dnipro serves as a very good defensive line (otherwise they wouldn't have retreated to it), and public chatter, as well as their fortification lines, point to them believing that Ukraine's offensive will likely be to the east, in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

Latvia has made a notable commitment to Ukraine, pledging to give it's entire stockpile of Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine has used the highly portable anti-air missiles to great effect over the course of the war. Substantially cheaper than the higher end air defenses Ukraine has such as NASAMS and PATRIOTs, the Stingers fulfill a vital role for Ukraine. They are cost effective against cheap Russian drones, while also being extremely portable. Particularly when taking into account that there are more of them available for Ukraine than munitions for the high end systems, ensuring that Ukraine has a steady supply of and a reliable surplus of Stingers and similar weaponry is a way to massively cut into Russia's drone warfare.

Ukrainian troops are finally to begin training on Abrams tanks in the next few weeks. I'll be honest, this is something I assumed had already started. And its possible that it has, these things are frequently announced after the fact. But the United States downgraded the model of Abrams to be gifted to Ukraine so that the tanks could be delivered by the end of this year already. It seems as if the United tis slow walking the proves dog giving Abrams tanks to Ukraine, and I'm not fully sure why. There are several possible explanations ranging from fear that the Biden administration would be criticized with providing Ukraine with even more military hardware, to worries that Russia could capture and use these tanks, to simpls bureaucratic and logistical issues. Even so, Ukraine finalmy being trained on these tanks is an important step to seeing the promised ones by delivered to Ukrainian custody.

The Washington Post has reported on documents (not ones from the Teixeira leak) that purport to prove a Russian influence campaign to boost both far left and far right isolationists within Germany. There has already been a fairly lengthy paper trail very strongly suggesting such a link; this is merely more evidence to pile on. Even so, the timing is curious as Germany's defense minister today suggested that limited Ukrainian incursions into the internationally recognized borders of Russia should be permitted, so long as it was away from civilians. With a green light from Germany, it's likely many other western partners of Ukraine will sign off on cross-border assaults. Suddenly, the significant effort Russia has expended on building defenses along the borders of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts seems much more relevant.

Russia has suffered a financial blow as an arms deal with India collapsed due to San too s restricting which currencies can be used in such exchanges. With US Dollars out of the question and Russia and India mutually distrusting the stability of the other's currency, trade has become more challenging between the two countries, which have very long-standing and feel defensive ties.

Zelenskyy has signed into a law a bill which bans naming public places in Ukraine with names that are associated with "Russian aggression". Hypothetically, this involves names of just about any famed Russian leader. This is another one of those laws that I find to be usnerstandable and justifiable, but also somewhat concerned. Ukrainian and Russian history are incredibly intertwined with each other, and this is a law I fear that could be abused. As with several other Ukrainian laws, these are matters that I would like to see revisited if and when the conflict concludes with an independent and sovereign Ukraine. Franky, in the meantime, Ukraine has more pressing matters to worry itself with, and Ukraine's allies expressing concern over hypothetical future rule of law issues only plays into Russian propaganda for the time being: though I hope it is something in the back of the minds of western officials involved with Ukraine, much as it is with me.

New information about the leak, which was previously heavily suggested but not outright confirmed, has come to light. It turns out Teixeira had a different and larger chat than the one which became notorious where he was disseminating classified documents as well. Previous reporting indicated that he began distributing classified information in February 2022; this new reporting gave a specific date of February 25 at the latest, the day after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine began.

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