Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 18, 2023

Ukraine - April 18, 2023

Apr 19, 2023

Notably, the front in Bakhmut was stagnant today. This has happened a few times of late, but has always been followed by Russian advances after a day or so, and I fully expect the same this time around. However, Ukraine actually managed to secure territory outside of Bakhmut. To the west of the canal, Russia has sustained a minor presence here, which Ukraine has previously been unable to devote the necessary resources to quash. They secured a chunk of this territory, buying additional space for Ukraine in the Chasiv Yar area. This leaves Russia with a presence in a smaller area to the west of the canal. Russia will still probably cross again at the location closer to Chasiv Yar in the future; the canal certainly serves to slow transit time, but it's nowhere near as formidable as many of the rivers which have acted as or are currently dividing lines, such as the Dnipro and Siverskyi Donets rivers.

All in all, Ukraine gaining a slice of land while Russia stalled in the general Bakhmut area is fairly surprising, though ultimately, I think it's just coincidental. Skirmishes along the canal are fairly common, and as mentioned earlier, Russia has stopped advancing in Bakhmut once in a while. I personally think the odds that this indicates a reversal of fortunes in the area is fairly slim. If over the next couple of days a pattern is established, then it will be a different story.

Fedorov, the exiled mayor of Melitopol, has stated that Russian forces are warning civilians between Vasylivka and Tokmak to evacuate. This area is certainly one which I think is a very, very probable candidate to be attacked by Ukraine during their next major offensive. Both Vasylivka and Tokmak are key logistical nodes for a push towards Melitopol. However, there's not publicly available information that can directly confirm the claim here. I wouldn't be surprised if it was simply an effort to set the Russian garrisons on edge.

Today there were a trio of high profile visits. Zelenskyy popped up in the embattled Donetsk suburb of Avdiivka. This is far from the first time he's made such a brazen appearance in or near a hotky contested region, but I'm always still slightly surprised when he does it, simply due to the risk of injury or death, even if incidental (I'm reminded of the Chadian president killed on the battlefield in 2021).

In contrast, Putin made an appearance in Henichesk, which is located in the Russian occupied portion of Kherson oblast. Henichesk is just about the furthest one could be from the front while still being in Kherson oblast, though it has served as the de facto capital of Russia's administration of Kherson oblast since they lost the city of Kherson. Putin also reportedly visited the headquarters of the Vostok militia, in Luhansk oblast. However, many Ukrainian commentators and officials have variously argued that the visit happened days ago, was undertaken by a body double, or that this happened during Putin's earlier visit to Crimea and Mariupol weeks ago.

The third visit worth mentioning is in Belarus. DPR leader Pushilin made an appearance in the capital city and met with Lukashenko. This is a bit of an awkward meeting as Belarus never formally recognized the independence of the DPR and LPR. Belarus also doesn't recognize Russia's annexation of these territories, though Belarus did vote against a resolution declaring the annexation illegal. Regardless, Lukashenko made a vague offer of assistance to Pushilin.

Poland has followed Hungary's lead and started to fold under EU pressure. Both countries are now in agreement that they will allow Ukrainian agricultural products to cross through their territory,provided that they will be sold elsewhere. The EU's meeting on how to encourage Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria (if necessary) back into compliance will likely be held at the end of the week, but that doesn't mean that less official negotiations are already well underway, as evidenced by Poland's sudden policy change.

Glory to Ukraine, a prominent Estonian-based organization devoted to helping Ukraine, is conducting an audit after some irregularities were uncovered. The organization gives funds to All For Victory, a charity organization ran by Lviv politician Hennadiy Vaskiv. Another organization called IC Construction is ran by Vaskiv's friend Roman Panasiuk. Both receive funds from Glory to Ukraine, but neither have reported how the money is being spent, which raised suspicions.

The United States has fornally accused four of its citizens and three Russian citizens as acting as unregistered agents for Russian intelligence. One of the accused serves as the leader of the Black Hammer Party, a radical cult which I last mentioned in July 2022 when they were first suspected of being part of a Russian influence campaign. The United States has accused Russia of facilitating some Black Hammer protests. The indictment comes as the United States is cracking down hard on suspected leakers and those acting on behalf of Russia after the explosive leaks from earlier this month.

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