Russia is currently launching two offensives based around the Bakhmut area. The first is to the west with the aim of capturing Chasiv Yar, which straddles the Siversky-Donets canal. Russian troops are now within almost literal spitting distance of Chaos Yar, having been geolocated just around a bend in the highway leading to Chasiv Yar. The other is north of Bakhmut, pushing away from Soledar. Russia's main offensive thrust is taking place at the periphery of the southern Bilohorivka. This is not to be confused with the other Bilohorivka just a couple of miles to the north, the site of a rather embarrassing battle for Russia. Russia is likely pushing from the southern Bilohorivka to try to isolate local Ukrainian strongholds such as Spirne and the northern Bilohorivka, with the eventual aim of pushing to Ukraine's logistical hub a bit to the west at Siversk.
As Ukraine is still reeling from Russian assaults against its energy grid, Ukraine introduced scheduled blackouts in six oblasts. The six are Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts. All six are in central or eastern Ukraine. Ukraine also accused Russia of striking a solar plant in Ukraine's rear for the first time. However, they declined to specify where the attack took place exactly. One of Ukraine's largest solar plants has been occupied by Russia since 2022, in Tokmak, which severely cut into Ukraine's solar power at that point in time. Wherever this new attack was, it was an additional hit to Ukraine's solar output.
Ukraine launched a significant drone attack against Morozovsk airbase, in far eastern Rostov oblast. The airbase has quite recently had over two dozen warplanes parked there, so this has the potential to be a significant hit against Russian air power. With the attack happening late at night, it is still too soon to know exactly what was hit. But chances are very high that Russia suffered damage to a few Su-34s in particular, as many are hosted by the base.
A former advisor of Zelenskyy, Artem Shylo, has been taken into custody. He and a half dozen other officials have been named in a corruption scandals relating to Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukraine's national rail service. They are accused of having purchased transformers at double the market rate, and making off with the difference.
American aid for Ukraine now looks to be further than ever, with the new timeline being weeks away. In a rather symbolic demonstration of the hurdles it faces Representative Victoria Spartz (who notably is from Ukraine) expressed opposition to the current bill. She called for the aid to be turned into a loan, for a more clear plan from the Biden administration (this I feel is a fair critique), and for there to be oversight for the aid. It's worth stressing that there are multiple oversight mechanisms, with efforts being led by Ukraine, the United States, NATO, and the EU, all independently of one another.
Separately, Ukraine is working with Hungary to resolve Hungary's complaints towards Ukraine. Ukraine already revised their law on national minorities per the EU's requests, but Hungary has independent demands. Ukraine has said that they are working through the eleven separate demands Hungary has, and hopes that Hungary as a result will soon unblock €500 million in financial aid, which the rest of the EU has been trying to get to Ukraine. A significant portion of Hungary's complaints are about langue rights in Ukraine. Language in Ukraine has undergone a massive shift over the past two years; per a poll released today, just twelve percent of Ukrainians speak Russian at home, with 59% only speaking Ukrainian at home. Just before the full scale invasion, the percentage of Ukrainians speaking only Russian at home was roughly double the current amount. Ukraine's government is hoping that by 2030, 80% of the country will speak Ukrainian at home as Ukraine has tried to foster a more firm national identity. A separate poll has shown a softening in Ukraine's resolve. Now, 45% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will restore its full borders back to how they were before 2014. This is the lowest figure this poll has seen, but it is still a plurality. Seven percent believe Ukraine will reclaim all territories minus Crimea, while an additional seven percent believe Ukraine will reclaim all lost territories except for those that had once been under the control of the now defunct DPR and LPR. Sixteen percent believe that Ukraine will reestablish the 2014-2022 status quo, and a further sixteen percent believe Ukraine will lose additional territories. But only one percent believe Ukraine fall. The main takeaways here are that Ukrainian confidence in their ability to trounce Russia is fading, but that three fourths of Ukrainians are still optimistic that Ukraine will reclaim some or all of their lost territories. And this is despite the past year being mostly a stalemate, punctuated by Russia scoring a minor victory once every few months. If Ukraine gets the support it needs and pulls off a successful offensive, I expect these numbers to skyrocket.