Gabriel B
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Ukraine - April 03, 2024

Ukraine - April 03, 2024

Apr 17, 2024

For all intents and purposes, Ivanivske has fallen, with Russian forces geolocated fighting for the southwestern corner of the town. Ukraine put up a lengthy battle for the western half of the town, but it wasn't enough to prevent Russia from ultimately claiming the bulk of the town. With Ivanivske basically under Russian control, Ukrainian supply lines to Klishchiivka and Andriivka are now compromised. The only remaining routes are across a major canal in the area, which serves as a notable obstacle. With Bakhmut now being out of the picture for Ukraine, having lost almost all of its suburbs and satellite towns, Ukraine will likely pull out from Klishchiivka and Andriivka once pressure mounts on them. If they can still inflict heavy casualties on Russia by holding on, Ukraine will probably do so. But as their supply situation worsens with time and as Russia pushes on Chasiv Yar, Ukraine will almost certainly voluntarily pull out of the two villages. It will leave the Bakhmut region firmly under Russian control after a brutal battle that has lasted well past a year.

Russian forces have pushed closer to Terny and Yampolivka, two villages sitting on the eastern side of the Zherebets river. As with most of their other ongoing offensives, Russia has taken heavy armored losses here. But they widened their salient while also closing the distance to the river, giving Russia the best opportunity that they have had in quite some time of recapturing the Zherebets river region.

Zelenskyy held a joint conference in Kyiv with the Finnish president today. While there, Finland and Ukraine signed a decade long deal, which covers everything from military assistance to working together on environmental protection and financial reforms. During the press conference, Zelenskyy also stated that Russia plans to mobilize an additional 300 thousand men by June. This figure is in the same very rough ballpark as the amount that Ukraine wants to mobilize. While the Ukrainian government isn't putting a number out there, they previously said a half million, then later stated "significantly less" than that figure. Ukrainian military reforms continue, as the post of a military ombudsman was announced today. Soldiers who have complaints regarding their treatment will be able to take them up with ombudsman. Explicitly mentioned were complaints about demobilization. The ombudsman will also provide legal advice and inspections, and will carry out other tasks as well.

China, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia have come out swinging against an EU proposal to use seized Russian assets to help support Ukraine. The joint campaign is a bit of an odd one; the three countries don't particularly have much in common, nor are their views on Russia and Ukraine aligned. That said, none of them are firmly in one camp or the other. There's little doubt that China supports Russia, but they are hardly openly supplying Russia with vast quantities of shells and drones like North Korea and Iran are, and Ukraine has turned to China as a fairly reliable intermediary in the past. Indonesia has almost entirely stayed out of it, while Saudi Arabia has been involved, but mostly by trying to play the situation to maximize their oil profits. The chief concern the countries have is reportedly the precedent it would set; and that they could be next. China is believed by many analysts to be planning a forceful reunification with Taiwan in the next few years. Indonesia has a rather checkered past with many of its island neighbors, and Saudi Arabia's human rights record speaks for itself, not to mention their own, frequently stumbling, imperialistic efforts. It is certainly noteworthy though that three relatively uninvolved countries are now weighing in, and not in favor of Ukraine.

On the flip side, France, followed by Romania, are becoming increasingly hawkish. France and Russia held talks today, but they came away with a different interpretation of what was discussed, publicly disputing the other's account. France then doubled down on their hypothetical plan to deploy troops to Ukraine, saying that the could do it by themselves, and that Russian attacks on any French troops that might be in Ukraine wouldn't mandate a NATO response, that France could handle the situation on their own. Again, this is all just in the hypothetical situation of France deploying to Ukraine. As for Romania, they have authorized their military to protect Romanian citizens abroad. This mostly impacts Moldova, giving the country another layer of protection, as many of its citizens are also Romanian citizens. Given troubles with Transnistria and the occasional drone flying over Moldovan territory, this could become relevant in the future.

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