A whirlwind of confusion swept through the region today. Early in the day, Israel dropped leaflets over parts of Rafah, demanding the evacuation of approximately a hundred thousand people (the current population of Rafah is believed to be well over a million). Hours later, Hamas announced that they had accepted a ceasefire proposal. Israel's response to this was rather inconsistent, and they seem to be rather taken aback. Ultimately, it was clarified that Hamas had accepted a proposal put forth by Qatar and Egypt (one which Israel helped to negotiate on), but that diverged from what Israel considered to be acceptable. The point of contention was over the rate at which Hamas would release hostages. Calling the Hamas acceptance of a ceasefire plan a "ruse", Israel announced an operation against Rafah. It has simultaneously been billed as "limited" while also apparently covering the entirety of the city (despite less than a tenth of the people there being told to evacuate). Israel's first objective is the border checkpoint with Egypt, and Israeli infantry and armor have rapidly pushed in that direction. Israel has also said that they will send a low level delegation to continue talks.
The United States denied reporting that they had withheld military aid to Israel last week, further muddying the waters as to the ongoing situation. Fresh reporting from western outlets has stated that the United States felt that Israel wasn't negotiating in good faith. Given the rapidity at which their offensive kicked off despite Hamas having almost agreed to Israel's floor of what was acceptable and having dropped leaflets only hours before, the optics of the situation certainly appears as if Israel was planning on going ahead with the Rafah operation anyway. But so far, Israel does seem to be, at least slightly, pulling their punches by concentrating on the border and eastern edges of the city and not the urban core of Rafah. Air strikes have certainly intensifies as well, but the overall softer opening than what many anticipated has led some analysts to believe that this is merely an attempt to strengthen Israel's negotiating hand. Maybe, after weeks of talking about an offensive against Rafah but doing nothing, Israel felt as if the threat wasn't being taken seriously, and decided to show that they mean business. I think that this is hypothetically possible, but unlikely. The leaflets dropped this morning seem to have been adequate, as Hamas quickly chajged tune and was willing to sign onto a deal, even if it was one that Israel didn't quite approve of.