Gabriel B
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Middle East - June 15, 2024

Middle East - June 15, 2024

Jun 16, 2024

Despite having previously been announced to be sailing under its own power, today the crew of the Verbena declared that they were abandoning ship. This makes it the second of the pair of ships that the Houthis hit this week to be abandoned, a rare rate of success for the Houthis. It might be luck, but it does suggest that they may have acquired means of either firing more accurately, or that they have higher quality munitions now.

Eight Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza when a blast rocked an armored personnel carrier, making it one of the deadliest single known incidents to hit Israeli forces over the course of the war after the initial few days. High casualty events such as this have been known to galvanize public opinion one way or the other over the course of history, and the possibility certainly exists here. It could for instance, contribute to reluctancy to fully open up a front in Lebanon when Israel just took a notable hit in Gaza. Alternatively, it could encourage people to feel vengeful, and increase popular support for the war. There's no great way to predict what the outcome will be; it largely relies upon any media spin, and how well the Israeli government can react.

Israel is now roughly half way through combing through Rafah, by geographical extent. The United States has maintained that Israel is still conducting a "limited" operation, despite around half of the city having openly seen combat. It's also worth noting that the United States has said little about the deadly strikes Israel conducted by refugee camps; it seems as if the United States has just quietly accepted that Israel is going ahead regardless, while making some minor efforts to encourage Israel to restrain itself.

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