Gabriel B
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Middle East - July 30, 2024

Middle East - July 30, 2024

Jul 31, 2024

Israel launched a strike into the Lebanese capital of Beirut, rather explicitly going against American wishes. However in some regards, this had the potential to be a measured response as the target was Fuad Shukr, one of the highest ranking members of Hezbollah, said to be behind the Majdal Shams attack. Shukr was also known to be responsible for Hezbollah's missile development, and he played a significant role in the Beirut barracks bombing of 1983, which had killed hundreds of people. He was as a result wanted by the United States, which placed a bounty for him to be arrested and handed over. Israel's strike targeted him, but it's not yet fully clear whether or not they actually killed him, with early media reports both stating that he survived and that he was killed. Israel claimed to have killed him, while Hezbollah hasn't offered much of a response yet. Several people were killed, and dozens of civilians were reportedly wounded in the attack. Even if Shukr is fine, this means a significant response by Hezbollah is effectively guaranteed.

The United States changed its posture in response to these events and reports that Iran would release their proxies on Iraq and Syria to fully go after American positions if Israel responded to the Majdal Shams strike; which they did. The United States in a rather rare move seems to have fired first at a Kataib Hezbollah base in Babil, Iraq, reportedly killing about ten fighters. This is a very notable difference from just days ago when the United States only responded after the militia had already launched rockets at an American base, and with enough of a delay so that no one was still present at the base when the American reprisal came. The United States also took pains to avoid calling the strike a counter attack. This has largely been how the United States has operated in the region since October, but that is clearly over.

These events were later followed by the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's new president, alongside a large number of foreign dignitaries. He was reportedly slain at a residency, after the main festivities had concluded and were disbanded. Still, the assassination (presumably by Israel) threatens to throw the region into even more turmoil, as Iran will feel obligated to respond directly against Israel once again. As this was just reported as I was writing, there will be far more details tomorrow.

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