Gabriel B
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Middle East - July 03, 2024

Middle East - July 03, 2024

Jul 04, 2024

The clock has ticked one day closer to the Houthis' ominous "three days" message, with no further clarification as to what they are implying. With countries such as the United States not publicly changing their military posture or tactics (the United States has continued to target Houthi radar installations this week), it seems unlikely that the Houthis are about to undertake a new military operation or campaign. I am sticking with my guess that it will be a test of a new missile, but that is merely an educated guess, with no evidence pointing to anything in particular that the Houthis might do. It's also possible that this is just psychological warfare, and that theyre trolling the world.

Tensions have spares further between Israel and Hezbollah has killed a top Hezbollah commander. Moving in the exact opposite direction though, Hamas by way of Qatar and Egypt provided a new ceasefire proposal. Details are scarce, but so far it seems as if the relevant powers are striking an optimistic tone. The details of the proposal itself likely still need to be finalized by Hamas before being debated with Israel, so an actual ceasefire is likely weeks away at minimum, assuming that both sides will actually agree to the latest proposal. Still, it gives both Hezbollah and Israel political cover to deescalate with each other, should they choose to do so.

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