Gabriel B
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Middle East - August 07, 2024

Middle East - August 07, 2024

Aug 08, 2024

Nasrallah's speech yesterday may have been even more impactful than I expected yesterday, as a large amount of reporting came out today suggesting a very clear policy split between Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah is willing to go it alone and all the way with Israel, and may mount a retaliatory attack on Israel whether or not Iran and other militias are involved. Iran on the other hand has reportedly floated the idea of foregoing their own retaliatory strike in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Allegedly, Pezeshkian is also somewhat opposed to a retaliatory strike; here the death of Rouhani and the election of a moderate president in Iran is having a very clear and positive impact on regional tensions.

Overall, tensions remain extremely high in the region, and interlocutors such as Egypt have placed temporary flight restrictions on various airspace in Iran. Iran also conducted surprise military drills today, and sent out cryptic social media posts highly reminiscent of those published right before their previous attack on Israel. Yet it did not materialize today, with apparently diplomacy still being viable for the time being.

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