Gabriel B
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Middle East - August 06, 2024

Middle East - August 06, 2024

Aug 07, 2024

Nasrallah gave a long and rambling speech today, as he is frequently a fan of doing. Surprisingly, there were actually a few nuggets to be gleaned from his speech; normally they're just reiterating the obvious about the regional situation. First, he excused the Syrian government and Iran from waging a permanent war against Israel, stating that they had no obligation to do so to defend Hezbollah. This is quite the fascinating statement, and one which I am inclined to read into a couple of different ways. The first is that it is a show of strength and independenc. Hezbollah is widely viewed as an Iranian proxy, so by distancing themselves from Iran, they are trying to alleviate international pressure on themselves. Simultaneously, they are very much so in competition with other Iranian proxies (particularly the Houthis) for funding and for more and better equipment. By claiming competence to such a level that they could stand on their own, Nasrallah is perhaps trying to make the case to Tehran that Hezbollah should be awarded with more backing, as they could make the best use out of it. The timing of this statement I don't think is a coincidence, as it was reported earlier today that the Russian footprint in Yemen to support the Houthis was larger and longer lasting than previously believed, though it has remained an advisory role for now.

The other part was a veiled reference to the war in Syria, acknowledging that the Syrian government already has its own battle, so their absence from a major conflict with Israel is understandable. The thing is, he more or less suggested that the Syrian opposition was being backed by Israel. There is a very limited amount of truth to this, but the actual ramifications of this statement go far further. Hamas and Hezbollah are not allies in recent history. Far from it; they were in fact opponents in Syria, with Hezbollah backing the government, and Hamas backing the opposition. The two groups had a rapprochement, but relations between them have always been a bit awkward since, and it seems as if Nasrallah is willing to dredge up this old conflict, perhaps further trying to elevate Hezbollah over its rivals among Iran's allies in the region.

Hamas announced that Yahya Sinwar will succeed Haniyeh as the political head of the organization. As Sinwar was the head of Hamas in Gaza, such a move is natural. However, it's also perhaps the final nail in the coffin for peace talks. Israel had placed Sinwar at the top of their kill list, as he stands accused of organizing the October 7th incursion into Israel which triggered this war. Israel is not likely to support sitting down for negotiations with Sinwar, but as the new political head of Hamas, they can't ignore him if they choose to go the diplomatic route.

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