Gabriel B
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Middle East - August 01, 2024

Middle East - August 01, 2024

Aug 02, 2024

Today saw the resumption of some hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah after an almost two day pause. Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel, while Israel conducted strikes in southern Lebanon. One Israeli strike reportedly killed several Lebanese and Syrian civilians. Despite this, Syria is like last time being explicitly left out of the major discussions between Iran and its allies in the region with how to respond to Israel. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and notably PIJ (the second largest militia in Gaza) are also explicitly being named as participants in the meetings.

Israel today announced the death of Mohammed Deif; after a massive strike on a humanitarian zone in Gaza, it was unclear whether or not he had survived for a while as neither Israel nor Hamas was able or willing to prove whether or not he was still alive. The funeral for Haniyeh was also moved forward to today, meaning that the response may be as early as tomorrow. This concern is already spreading, as numerous airlines have cancelled flights to Lebanon and Israel.

It was reported today that Haniyeh was not, in fact, killed by a missile as Iran initially announced, a major embarrassment for their air defenses which just simply assumed that they hadn't caught an incoming missile. Instead, Mossad agents planted a bombing Haniyeh's residence in Tehran around two months ago; doubly embarrassing Iran.

But at the same time, diplomacy is very much so ongoing. Jordan and Iran are fairly open that they're holding discussions about regional security, for example. However, this is likely more an effort to clarify the terms of what sort of Iranian projectiles flying through Jordanian airspace Jordan would find tolerable.

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