Gabriel B
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Middle East - January 28, 2024

Middle East - January 28, 2024

Apr 18, 2024

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of many Iranian-backed militia organizations based in Iraq, conducted an unprecedented attack. The United States states that their base in Rukban, Jordan came under drone attack, while Jordan initially stated that the attack took place just across the border, presumably against the American garrison in al-Tanf, Syria; the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to have targeted both sites, likely leading to the confusion. However officials at all levels of the American government have asserted it took place in Jordan, and Jordan eventually walked back their claims slightly. The result of the attack was the deaths of three American soldiers, with dozens more being wounded. Eight were evacuated for serious injuries. Jordan is one of the most restrained countries in the Middle East, typically pretty reluctant to engage in hostilities. And even when they do, they are usually less committed than their neighbors. For instance, they were one of the first major powers to pull support from the Syrian rebels, while Saudi Arabia pulled support to wage a failed war against the Houthis, while Turkey went all in and sent their own troops into Syria. While the region has been engulfed in tensions over the past couple of months, Jordan has done little beyond launch a few rounds of air strikes into Syria, mostly targeting smugglers and in response to a major armed incursion into Jordan. I expect a similar response from Jordan this time around, but it is concerning to see a relative island of stability increasingly being dragged into proxy conflicts.

As for the United States, they have vowed retaliation at a time and place of their choosing. Among the options being considered according to Western media include plans as drastic as going all the way to secretly bombing Iran, then denying responsibility. There has been a large push from many Republican politicians to hit back hard, with many publicly calling for a direct attack on Iran itself. The attack could cause a change in current American deliberations on pulling out of Iraq and Syria, as well as their current posture around Yemen; their latest strike against the Houthis was quite minor. The next may be a heavier attack in retribution.

It also means that the American posture towards Israel may change, to Israel's benefit. It has been reported that the United States was considering my delaying the delivery of some offensive weaponry to Israel unless if they scaled down the intensity of their attacks and did better with reducing civilian casualties. Later reporting stated that this was not the case, and that such a plan was not under active consideration in the United States government.

It was also reported that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan held a secret meeting ten days ago, during which they discussed the return of the Palestinians Authority to Gaza once the war has concluded. With such discussions taking place, it seems as if most of the regional powers are willing to accept the destruction of Hamas as a governing body in Gaza. However, there is still distance between this and tthe Israeli position, particularly as Israel has increasingly been flirting with the idea of reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza of late.

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