This video data is as of Monday, August 12.
Howdy, Swings!
As predicted in the previous video, today was uneventful, and the markets traded a boring sideways range as we await the July CPI release on Wednesday.
Will there be a market stress test to the downside soon? Or will the market break through resistance and go straight to the upside?
Let's take a look at Fullhapce’s Daily swing market forecast to get some answers.
Swing Traders' friend, Fullhapce Intelligence presents August 12 Wall street market forecast.
Daily Market Moves.
Market did not move much.
SNP 500: 5344.39, 0.00% up.
Dow Jones: 39357.01, -0.36% down.
NASDAQ: 16780.61, 0.21% up.
Russel 2000: 2071.3, -0.89% down.
Here is Daily sector performance.
On Monday, technology, energy, gold and some consumer discretionary stocks performed well.
On the other hand, Sectors that struggled included financials, legacy media, real estate, consumer staples, pharmacies, healthcare, airlines, transport, and autos.
Here are The reasons.
The overall market seemed okay, but there were some underlying weaknesses. The small-cap index saw notable declines, though the tech sector's strong performance helped lift the main S&P index and drove the Nasdaq up.
There wasn't much news after the US market closed, except for some geopolitical concerns. Reports suggest possible retaliatory actions from Iran and ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
The focus will be on the upcoming earnings reports for July and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July.
Here are Things to consider.
Recent market fluctuations in late July and early August appear to be settling down, with investors starting to feel a bit more confident.
A recent survey from the New York Fed shows that people are expecting lower inflation over the next three years.
A Bloomberg article points out that the increase in available apartments is leading landlords to offer better deals to renters.
There are reports suggesting that Iran might retaliate soon, but it seems like they are still trying to avoid a full-scale conflict.
Here is Daily Market Forecast for swings.
The S&P didn't move at all and stayed near the full sum resistance at 5344. As expected, it was a boring day and small caps were down a bit, hinting that there could be some movement.
Tuesday could see a similar boring trading session to today.
The market's bullish potential is still strong, but at the same time, volatility has reached a critical point. It looks like the market's direction is about to be decided. Smart investors will be watching the market's behavior over the next few days to see if there will be a market test of downside stress. We are leaning towards a market pullback over the next few days, but as we said in our weekly forecast, a rally could come in the coming weeks regardless of whether the market tests the downside or not.
Here are some additional insights.
Geopolitical issues are unlikely to cause any major problems for the markets.
There are concerns that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release could be higher than expected, but the numbers are expected to be modest.
The market is more worried about slowing economic growth and less room for price increases than inflation.
Businesses are waiting for the upcoming Federal Reserve event to be positive.
Here is Devil's Advocate.
The opposite scenario would be if volatility spiraled out of control and the market dropped significantly below the S&P 5100 again.
In this case, it could be an opportunity for optimists to buy the dips on the way down.
The rationale for this scenario is as follows
There are concerns that expectations for a quick rate cut may be overly optimistic.
Stocks are currently expensive and may remain vulnerable to broader economic risks.
Geopolitical tensions pose significant risks, with ongoing conflicts between Iran and Israel and Ukraine and Russia.
The opposite scenario has some validity, but the evidence is already known and we think it is unlikely unless there is a sudden shock to recession fears.
Nevertheless, viewers should be wary of the concerns raised by the opposition.
Here is the Conclusion.
The bullish potential of the daily market remains strong, but we are at a critical point that will determine whether or not the market will become more volatile. With small-cap stocks showing some bearish movement, investors may need to wait and see how the market reacts to the downside pressure that seems likely to occur over the next few days.
Whether a stress test occurs or not, it may be wise to do nothing until the CPI results are released and focus on planning for the upcoming rally.
Thank you for watching.
Fullhapce Intelligence, the best investment partner for swing traders.