Tropical Update -- Tue 26 Sep'23

Tropical Update -- Tue 26 Sep'23

Sep 26, 2023

> Philippe & 91L fighting for energy <

…1 weakens, the other strengthens…

From left to right…

* Red:

At 11am, Tropical Storm Philippe was centered at 17.3°N 50.3°W (+/- 845mi East of SSS Islands), moving West @ 14mph.

…Projections show TS Philippe will weaken over the next few days, then pass +/- 220mi North-NorthEast of the Caribbean, as a ‘weak’ tropical storm or tropical wave on Thu-Sat -- with a low chance of outer bands bringing a couple showers to the SSS Islands (St. Maarten-Saba-St. Eustatius).

...Nonetheless, Philippe (or what’s left of it) poses no direct threat to the Caribbean, except for causing rough seas, rip currents/ground swells from this evening through the week -- use Sea Caution!

We will continue to monitor its progress.

* Orange:

Invest 91L -- now centered at 11°N, 36°W -- has a high (70-90%) chance of developing within the next couple of days.

…This system is slightly interacting with TS Philippe ahead of it & has the potential to rapidly intensify this week.

...Projections show this system will likely pass at a relatively safe distance from the Caribbean by early next week (Mon-Wed).

We will continue to monitor its progress, as path & intensity can change in the coming days.

…we have 65 days left in the season…

#RemainAlert #StayPrepared

Keep checking back for updates

________________

2023 Hurricane Season:

>> So far: 17 trop. storms, 6 hurr’s, 3 major

>> Expected: 13-18 tropical storms, 6-8 hurricanes (3-4 major)

* Normal Season: 14 TS, 7 H (3 MH) --> 2023 = slightly above-average!

________________

Reminder:

* St. Maarten = 18.0°N, 63.1°W

* Saba = 17.6°N, 63.2°W

* St. Eustatius = 17.5°N, 63.0°W

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