The focus of the ES game plan is to trade successfully, along with support/resistance levels. Support and resistance levels are fundamental concepts in technical analysis and are crucial in trading. They represent key price levels on a chart where the pressures of buying (support) and selling (resistance) have historically been significant. The plans listed below are based on support and resistance levels.
Trade Recap:
ES continued to move up overnight. When I woke up early in the morning, there was no set-up. ES reclaimed the 5362 level in the morning. However, I have decided not to trade here. After multiple tests, ES failed below 5362. I closed my runners at 5357. It was a textbook short opportunity for those who understand how to trade short. I have not tried short here.
As per our plan, I traded long in the afternoon when ES failed below 5348 and reclaimed it. I took the major exits at 5358 and 5362.
At the end of the day, I added a small size to my long position when ES tried to reclaim 5362.
I am holding runners from 5352. It is essential to hold runners because you will not look for the new trade when there is no new set-up. Even if ES continues to go up, you will still be in trade with runners.
Do you see how accurately our plans and levels are working?
The goal is to prepare trading plans in advance and wait patiently for the plan(s) to trigger. I create my plans daily and identify support and resistance levels before the session starts. I enter the market based on the pre-determined plan, focusing on high-probability trades that can give me level-to-level profit. This is what keeps me trading successfully.
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Sentiment:
ES has seen a rally over the past few days. It's typical for the market to consolidate within a range before making a significant move. I'm now viewing the range between 5340 and 5372 as the new chop zone until the market indicates otherwise.
Chop Range: 5340-5372
Pivot: 5362
The bulls need to hold 5340
Breakout above 5372. Howevever, NFP news tomorrow can make a move trappy.
Backtest Support: 5312-15
Below are trade plans with Grades ranging from A (safer) to C (less secure). Grade C can be avoided or traded with 1% of your portfolio size, Grade B - 2% to 5%, and Grade A 3% to 10%, depending on your trade experience.
Long Plans:
Long: As mentioned above, I added a small size to my long position when ES reclaimed 5362 at the end of the day. ES can move up the longer we base here. NFP is tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. The market can be volatile and trappy. 5340 is the main support level for the Bulls tomorrow. One could trade a direct long here (Grade C) or wait for ES to test and reclaim today's low to trade long near 5347-50 (Grade B)
Long: Breakout long. If ES can break above 5372 tomorrow, then one could trade long near 5374 for the breakout move. This is not the best setup. Breakout longs are usually trappy. We also have NFP tomorrow. So consider trading this with profit. (Grade C)
Counter-trend Long: If ES fails below 5340, I will trade counter-trend long near 5312-50 or 5284 (Grade B). ES broke above 5312, and it can backtest. It can be a good spot to test demand.
Risk Management for the Long Plans:
Take Profit: Close 70-75% of the position at the next upside level (no exceptions), 10-15% at the second upside level, and let the remaining runners ride until the significant low on the 15-minute chart is breached. Stop Loss: Approximately 15 points.
Short Plans:
Short Plan: Bulls are in complete control. There is no real bear case. However, a short-term sell starts if ES fails below the 5340 level. A short near 5337 can work after drain demand. Drain demand means you want to see the first bounce reaction near 5340 or above the long plan worked out and then a weak bounce and acceptance of the level (Grade C).
Note: Breakdown shorts can have a low win ratio, and they can trap traders. Look for a level of acceptance, consolidation, or weakness near the level. Skipping such trades is acceptable, especially if you lack sufficient trading experience.
Counter-trend Short Plan: I do not trade counter-trend short. Those are only good for scalpers. To scalp a few points, one could look for a sell reaction near the 5404-10 (C) or 5436 level (Grade (C).
Take Profit: Close 70-75% of the position when reaching the next downside level (no exceptions), 10-15% at the second downside level, and continue to hold runners until the gold support level is recla med. Stop Loss: Approximately 15 points.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
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