This week’s fixtures promise another round of fierce competition. Here’s what my modeling predicts for Round 4:
Collingwood vs. Carlton at the MCG
Collingwood is favored with a 57.5% chance of victory, though Carlton will be determined to challenge their cross-town rivals for their first win of the season in what could be a heated affair.
Geelong vs. Melbourne at Kardinia Park
Geelong enters as strong favorites with a commanding 69.0% prediction. Melbourne are looking for their first win in 2025 and will need to bring their best to tackle the Cats at their home ground.
Gold Coast vs. Adelaide at Carrara Stadium
The Suns have the edge in the predictions with a 58.0% chance over Adelaide’s 42.0%. As two of the early competition leaders, both teams will be looking for a valuable four points to boost their standing early in the season.
Richmond vs. Brisbane at the MCG
Richmond faces an uphill battle with just a 19.0% likelihood of victory against Brisbane’s dominant 81.0%. The Tigers do have the home ground advantage in this one, but Brisbane look too strong.
North Melbourne vs. Sydney at Docklands
Sydney enters as clear favorites with a 74.0% chance of success, leaving North Melbourne as underdogs who could cause a surprise if they rise to the challenge.
GWS vs. West Coast at Sydney Showgrounds
GWS is heavily favored at 88.9%, making this a crucial opportunity for the Giants to assert their dominance. West Coast faces an uphill task, especially away from home.
Port Adelaide vs. St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
A close contest is predicted, with Port Adelaide leading at 59.8% over St Kilda’s 40.2%. Both teams will be eager to rebound after mixed results in Round 3.
Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs at Perth Stadium
Perhaps one of the most evenly matched fixtures of the round, Fremantle narrowly edges the Bulldogs at 52.0% to 48.0%. This clash promises plenty of drama and could swing either way.