The clocks changed this weekend. It's funny how this seems less of a big deal now we all have devices that update the time automatically. I remember rushing out of a youth hostel many years ago to make it to some whitewater meet-up, only to find a handwritten notice on the door telling me that 'it may be earlier than you think'.
These days, the sea boat gets far more use than the whitewater one, and by the times the clocks change, most of my boating is done for the year. Fortunately, my friends are already planning next year's adventures.... some of which are tide-dependant.
So, I told the ageing computer downstairs to switch its weekly tide prediction efforts from 2022 to 2023 and, as of today, you'll find tide tables for 2023 linked on the tides page.
How accurate are these predications? The short answer is 'not very' - you can easily get hold of better predictions on https://easytide.admiralty.co.uk. I use unchecked raw data from tide gauges and an automated prediction method. The plot below shows cumulative distributions for errors in times and height of tidal predictions (compared to UKHO predictions for this week):
So, 90% of the predictions lie within +23/-13 minutes and +0.5/-0.3 metres. Clearly, you'd want better predictions for planning a crossing (if only because the outlying errors can be rather greater than these numbers), but that's probably usable if you're simply looking for a weekend next year when high water is in the middle of the day.
So - what sea kayak adventures are you planning for 2023?