It's that time of the offseason where nothing's happening, making it a perfect opportunity to do my prospect pool ranking series! This is part of a twice-a-year series, once in the winter and another in the summer after the draft. This version is the second ranking using the current criteria, which makes it the first one that I can directly compare to the last ranking to see how a team's pool has developed over the past eight months.
Here's how this ranking works. To count as a prospect, a player must satisfy both of these criteria:
a) have no more than 25 career NHL games played
b) have just played their D+5 year or earlier
If a player satisfies both, then they are counted for a team's total. Teams are ranked by a score calculated with a weighted sum of their expected stars, impact-level, and replacement-level players, with the stars getting twice the weight as the impact-level, who have twice the weight of the replacement-level. If a team has 1 expected star, 1.5 expected impact players, and 2.5 expected replacement players, then they'll have a score of 1 * 4 + 1.5 * 2 + 2.5 = 9.5.
Now that every team is revealed on Twitter, this article is officially in its final form. It's been a long road to get to this point. A month of work, a college move-in, and 10,000 words later, we're all done. I hope you enjoy this project, whether you're just browsing through or take the time to read everything. Thank you!
Without any further ado, let's get into it! Here are my summer 2025 prospect pool rankings!
#1 - San Jose Sharks
Winter Ranking: 5th
This one shouldn't be a shocker to anyone, especially after the 2025 Draft. The Sharks are set for a long era of cup contention and will hopefully get over the hump that the Thornton-Marleau-Pavelski era couldn't. As a Bay Area local, I'm so excited to have this team in my backyard and be a witness to the great things that they're going to do.
Not only do the Sharks have the best prospect pool, but it's not even close. The Sharks have 2.31 expected stars in their group. The next closest teams are at 1.98, 1.84, and 1.68. There is a clear gap between San Jose and the rest of the league. When you add in their graduated players like Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund, the Sharks have the best U24 group as well by a decent margin.
Michael Misa was my model's favorite draft eligible last year. The Sharks were super lucky to select him at 2nd overall since he is a 1st overall type player, and his projection displays that. He will be a first line center type player and on any other team would probably play that role. On the Sharks, however, with Celebrini and Smith both already as centers and with better projections, it'll be interesting to see where Misa plays. I'd expect him to start and have an impact in the NHL right away this season.
My model has been high on Luca Cagnoni ever since he was drafted. He's looked worthy of a much higher draft slot from the moment the Sharks selected him in the late 4th round. He tore up the WHL and was incredible in his rookie AHL season in 24-25. He even got a short NHL stint towards the end of the season. He will have to fight to get a spot in the NHL because of his shorter frame. He will have to prove to coaches that he can be trusted, and to those who don't trust him, I invite you to look at the most recent Calder winner. If the offensive tools are there, play the kid and see what happens.
Quentin Musty is a unique type of prospect. Usually, power forwards don't project the best because they don't produce that well. Musty is different. He has the production to back up what scouts see in him and his frame. He'll play in the AHL next season, where he should hopefully prove himself as a future top six forward in San Jose.
Igor Chernyshov had an insane season, which started with one of the most productive OHL runs a player has had in a while. It was a big year for him model wise as well, since the model really soured on him last year after an unimpressive rookie season. This OHL year completely flipped that around for him. Right now, Cherynshov projects as a middle six winger, but if his chemistry with Misa translates to the next level, he could become even more than that.
After a few updates, my model is lower on Sam Dickinson than it used to be. It still is a fan, he projects as a top four defenseman on a team that needs defenseman for the future. If there is a spot for the Sharks to improve, it's their blue line. Outside of Dickinson and Cagnoni, there isn't much in their pool in terms of safe bets to be an NHL defenseman. They still have some more years of being bad, though, so I'd be shocked if they didn't draft a defenseman high soon.
Cole McKinney was also a great pickup by the Sharks in this year's draft, which made up for the Hoaxi Wang who my model wasn't a fan of. McKinney still has a wide range of possible outcomes if he makes the NHL, so it's tough to project him into a certain role. His odds are evenly split among becoming a star, impact, or replacement forward, so we'll see what he settles into as he develops in college.
Cameron Lund and Eric Pohlkamp both project as depth prospects that provide San Jose's pool with solid talent towards the end of their top ten. The San Jose Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL right now, but give it a few seasons and they'll be competing for Stanley Cups year after year.
#2 - Carolina Hurricanes
Winter Ranking: 1st
The Hurricanes are one of the best-run teams in the entire NHL. They have one of the strongest rosters and are consistently signing their players to A+ contracts. And all that is without mentioning the whole point of these rankings, their prospect pool. Carolina is always picking up guys with solid NHL upside in the later rounds that other teams are constantly passing on. Out of their top ten prospects, only one is a 1st round pick, and even then, Nadeau was a very late first with the 30th overall pick. If I had to describe everything about how the Hurricanes handle their hockey operations in one word, I would pick efficiency.
Alexander Nikishin has a very real shot to be the Canes' next number one defenseman. He's been one of the best players in the KHL over the past few years. He got himself into a few playoff games last spring and now seems poised for a strong rookie season and Calder campaign. He's a top 3 defensive prospect and a player who will be a franchise piece in Carolina for the next decade.
Bradly Nadeau was one of my model's favorite players from the 2023 draft class, and so far is looking pretty good. He had an incredible rookie season in the AHL and seems ready for a full time NHL role. He projects as a top six forward, which is incredible value for a late 1st round pick.
For much of last season, Nikita Artamonov's projection put him as one of the best prospects in the entire NHL. After a few model updates, his projection has come down a bit but he still looks like a great player. He was good in the KHL in his draft year and continued to build on that this season with more production. His contract keeps him in the KHL for at least two more seasons, but when he comes over, he will be impactful right away.
Justin Poirier is another late round pick who the Canes picked up once he started falling. His odds did see a drop this season, but he still profiles much better than a typical 5th round pick. I'm glad he's moving on to the NCAA next season. He was starting to run the risk of harming his development by staying in the CHL longer than he needed to.
Filip Ekberg's slide in this summer's draft was one of the most shocking things to happen at the draft in my opinion. He wasn't a super high producer in the OHL, but he absolutely lit up the U18's and I thought deserving of a higher selection than the fourth-to-last pick. He has a lot of developing to do to make it to the pros, but for where Carolina selected him, it's a great pick. Talk about efficiency...
Ivan Ryabkin was one of the most interesting storylines heading into the draft. His skill is undeniable, but the off-ice question marks about attitude and work ethic were putting a lot of teams off drafting him. Of course, it was the Canes that decided to take a shot on him and see what happens. If he hits, you can expect a solid bottom six forward out of him. If he busts it won't hurt Carolina at all. Their prospect pool is deep enough.
In addition to Carolina's star prospects they also have a lot of depth in their pool, a surprising amount actually for a constant playoff contender. Guys like Robidas, Krutov, Forsmark, Fransen, Unger Sorum, Cerrato, and Limatov all have greater than 25% chances to make the NHL. Having pieces like this is very helpful in both making trades and also filling lineup holes when vets start asking for too much money to be able to keep the core together.
#3 - Calgary Flames
Winter Ranking: 4th
While I'm sure most Calgary fans want a full rebuild in order to acquire superstar talents, it's impossible not to mention that they've set themselves up pretty well long term without a top eight selection. They've consistently gotten great value from later round picks, and when they do pick high, they select high upside guys to make up for the lack of high lottery picks they don't have. I'm a fan of how Conroy has drafted, and it seems like it won't be stopping anytime soon.
Calgary's most recent high pick was Cole Reschny, a player my model sees as a top 5-10 player from the 2025 Draft. His skill is elite, and the only reason he went late was because of his smaller frame. He's already impressing people this summer with his performance at Team Canada's World Junior summer camp. Reschny will be playing at the University of North Dakota next season and should absolutely light it up. I think there's a very real shot that Reschny is Calgary's first line center at some point in the future and is good in that role.
Many see Zayne Parekh as one of the best defensive prospects in the entire league. My model agrees with that as it sees him as the 7th best. Parekh has been sensational in the OHL over the past two seasons and seems ready to make the jump to the NHL in the fall. I didn't really like how the Flames handled the lineup decisions with him last spring, but with a full training camp this season, he should get more trust from the organization to play big minutes.
Ethan Wyttenbach is a lesser known name, but projects very well for a 5th round pick. He produced very well in the USHL this year, and just wasn't selected higher because of concerns with his decision-making. I'm very intrigued to see how he develops, but it's guys like Wyttenbach that I was talking about when I said Calgary has done very well picking up value in the later rounds. If he doesn't turn into anything, so what? You only spent a 5th on him.
Henry Mews has had a very stable development. He's always been a good producer in the OHL. He was one of the first players to commit to the NCAA from the OHL when he signed with the University of Michigan. He should have a large part in making Michigan much better than they were last year.
Theo Stockselius was also a model favorite that the Flames selected this summer (notice a pattern?). He produced at a high rate in the Swedish juniors, and I'd expect him to get more time at higher levels this season, maybe even the SHL? Only time will tell, but he grades out as a great pick today.
Calgary also as plenty of depth prospects, guys like Suniev, Gridin, Brzustewicz, Potter, and Batinga all have shots to make the NHL so you could expect one or two of them to make it there eventually. Overall, I really like what Calgary's done with their prospect pool over the past few drafts.
#4 - Nashville Predators
Winter Ranking: 12th
I'm going to be completely honest here, when I put everything together, Nashville at 4th overall was the most surprising placement to me. I double and triple checked everything to make sure everything was being calculated right. Once I took a deeper look at Nashville's pool, I understood why they came in so high. Even though they lack the star prospect of other top pools, they have an insane amount of depth and a lot of players who all have realistic shots to be NHLers. For a team with an old core like the Preds, it's perfect in order to prevent the post-Josi era from being too dark.
Yegor Surin comes in as Nashville's best prospect. He was drafted in the late 1st last summer after producing very well in the MHL and followed that up with a solid rookie year in the KHL. His odds are pretty evenly split among each outcome category, but if there's one thing the model is sure of with him is that he will play in the NHL one day. Whether that's as a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th liner, only time will tell.
Most people expected Nashville to pick up a star prospect this year at 5th overall, a guy like James Hagens, for example. What they actually ended up doing was selecting Brady Martin. Martin was described by scouts as a guy without that star ceiling, but as one with a very projectable game and will be a solid NHL player. My model largely agrees with that evaluation. It sees him as a 2nd or 3rd line player, but likely not as a 1st line star.
Aiden Fink was a Hobey Baker finalist last year. For a former 7th round pick, that's an amazing selection by Nashville there. Many have doubts about his size, but I'm not worried about it. He has the skills needed to be an impactful player in the NHL and overcome whatever size challenges there may be. He'll be back at Penn State next year, which will be a much better team this year than the already good team they were last year. Expect another big year from Fink.
Teddy Stiga got on a lot of people's radars at the World Juniors. He was an insane producer at the US Development Program and was also decent in his freshman season at Boston College. Cameron Reid was Nashville's most recent 1st round selection, and he also projects to be a productive NHLer. If everything goes well with his development, he's a safe bet to become a 2nd pair guy for the Preds.
Ryan Ufko used to be an NHLe darling but has fallen since then. He still looks like a solid prospect, but just not the same after a few seasons of stagnation and a slow start to his AHL career. Matthew Wood was taken as a possible Tage Thompson-like player. His production regressed over the past two seasons, with it only returning to where he was in his draft year this season.
Alex Huang and Ryker Lee were both prospects my model was a fan of and liked where Nashville selected them in the 2025 Draft. Joakim Kemell looked fantastic in his draft year but has struggled to match that production since then. He either needs an amazing year in the AHL or an NHL opportunity with solid production to put his development back on track.
#5 - Detroit Red Wings
Winter Ranking: 8th
Detroit is in a small group of teams that have two projected star players in their pool. Their first is Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who has been a superstar in the SHL over the past two seasons. He's proven everything he needs to at that level and now seems ready to take his talents over to North America. He spent a few games in the AHL last year, so that may be the expectation for next season at the moment but with how good ASP is and how weak Detroit's defense is, I wouldn't expect him to stay down for long. He should be able to beat out an Erik Gustafsson or Jacob Bernard Docker sooner rather than later.
Max Plante is the second projected star in Detroit's pool and a guy my model is higher on than most. I think it is important to note that if his star odds were 1% lower, he would be labeled as an impact forward, but still, he's a great prospect. He was a high producer at the US Development Program and followed that up with a solid season in the NCAA. As a 2nd round pick, he is great value for Detroit.
The Red Wings fleeced the Predators in the Kiiskinen-Gibson trade. Detroit was able to pick up Jesse Kiiskinen AND a 2nd round pick for Andrew Gibson, a player who currently has a 0% chance to make the NHL in my model. Kiiskinen, on the other hand, projects to be a solid 3rd liner at the worst but has a real shot to be something more. He was around a point per game in Liiga last season and is slated to play in the AHL this year. If you're a Red Wings fan, just don't look up what that 2nd round pick I mentioned was used for...
Carter Bear was a good pick in the late lottery. He had his troubles with an Achilles injury this year, but when he was playing, he looked great. As a draft year player, there's still plenty of way to go, but for now, he projects as a middle six guy. Compared to the other late lottery picks Detroit has taken in the past few drafts, the Bear pick looks much better.
Buchelnikov has a unique projection from my model. It has his NHL odds around 50% but his impact odds are at 36%, making it the most likely NHL outcome. That's unusual. You typically see replacement players being the most likely outcome for NHL odds that low. What this means is that most of Buchelnikov's comps were high producing pros like him, but when they came over to the NHL, they either busted or became middle six guys with no in between. We'll see what Buchelnikov becomes when he comes over later this season.
I like the depth the Wings have in their pool as well. Brandsegg-Nygard, Buium, Lombardi, Finnie, and Danielson all look like end of the lineup players. Detroit has been in no man's land for quite some time, but still have a solid young core. It should only be a matter of time until that turns into playoff appearances and runs again like the good old days.
#6 - Montreal Canadiens
Winter Ranking: 3rd
It is well known around the NHL and every fanbase that the Canadiens are set up for one of the best futures in the league. That much is clear by the 3rd best rank for the Habs' U24 group, making me very excited for the future of Habs hockey. Ivan Demidov is a special prospect, the 4th best to be exact. Him coming over early was a shocker last spring, and he looked solid even with very little prep. Now with a whole offseason in Montreal behind him, I expect him to come out of the gates flying in October. He will be a top six forward at the worst, but has a very real shot to be an all star type.
Michael Hage was one of my model's favorite prospects in last year's class. He was the best available player on the board at the 21st overall pick, and even though his odds dropped this season, he still projects as a solid player. He's a safe bet to be a 3rd line center, but I'm sure the Habs are hoping he becomes their 2nd line center, especially with the disappointments from Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook, who were previously supposed to fill that role.
L.J. Mooney was a steal in this year's draft and already was proving that true at development camp. He stood out as one of the most impactful players at camp and got himself on the radar of a lot of fans. He's a short American forward who was drafted by the Canadiens way later than he should've been because of his size. I wonder where I've seen that before...
The Reinbacher pick will be talked about for a long time, but I'm not here to focus on that. Reinbacher himself projects to be a solid defenseman even through the injuries and developmental setbacks over the past few seasons. You can probably slot him in as a second pair guy, perfect when you already have Hutson, Dobson, and Guhle long-term.
Oliver Kapanen showed some promise in his NHL stint last fall and followed that up with a good year in the SHL. He should hold onto his role in the NHL for the entire season with the departure of a few bottom six vets, and there's potential for him to blossom into a middle six guy.
Montreal has stars at every position and has plenty of depth from its prospect pool to fill in the holes. Once contracts like Anderson and Gallagher are officially off the books, the Habs will be one of the scariest teams in the league.
#7 - Washington Capitals
Winter Ranking: 7th
Washington is a pool that's being hurt by the new way I'm ranking the pools, since it's more than just expected stars that matter now. With 1.98 expected stars, the Caps rank second overall in that mark, but when the expected NHLer count is factored in, they end up 7th overall. A big part of the star count is Cole Hutson, the model's favorite prospect and an almost guaranteed star defenseman.
Behind Hutson, Ilya Protas finds himself #2 after an insane debut season in the OHL. Usually, when teams draft younger siblings it doesn't work out. The Protas brothers seem to be different. I think you can safely expect Ilya to join his older brother in the NHL and become a good player when he makes that jump.
Andrew Cristall's odds have been dropping from a possible star to an impact player over the last two years due to stagnating production and the model's expectation for him to play in a better league than he currently is. He's proven he's an amazing junior player, but as of today, my model sees him as a middle six winger in the NHL. Not bad value for where the Capitals selected him.
My model is lower on Ryan Leonard than public perception. The drop in odds happened this season. His NCAA production took a dip from last year when he was playing with Will Smith, and his 17 NHL games with only two points also didn't help his season NHLe. He's now seen as a middle six player instead of the top six player he was projected to be just last season.
Leon Muggli is a guy my model likes in Washington's pool. It likes how much he's been able to produce in a league as strong as the NL. He seems like a good bet to be an NHL defenseman and maybe even a solid top four guy.
Recent 1st rounders Terik Paracak and Lynden Lakovic are both viewed as depth players. Overall, Washington's prospect pool is very exciting, but their U24 group is average. For a team that spent the entire season fighting for the President's trophy, it's an amazing spot for the organization to be in.
#8 - Pittsburgh Penguins
Winter Ranking: 19th
The Penguins are committed to a long term rebuild. They've stockpiled so many picks in the next few drafts and have already used a good amount of them, especially this summer, with an impressive 13 selections. Some of those picks were major reaches, but there were also some late picks that my model loves, and you'll see those players ranked pretty highly here.
Benjamin Kindel is the Penguins' best prospect. Most would say that Pittsburgh reached on Kindel, but personally, I had him ranked right around here and loved the pick the moment it happened. Kindel has the skill to become a dynamic top six forward and a key part of Pittsburgh's core in the post-Crosby era. Right now, he's the only star prospect in this pool, but I imagine with a few more rough seasons in Pittsburgh, he won't be the only one for much longer.
Kale Dach comes in second, ahead of a player many know in Rutger McGroarty. Dach lit up the BCHL this season and is committed to play in the WHL next season. I'm curious to see how he produces since it'll be a big test for my model's BCHL NHLe value, which is significantly higher than the consensus opinion on the league in its current state.
As previously mentioned, Rutger McGroarty rounds out the top three. He's had an interesting development path, especially last season, after he didn't live up to the expectations he publicly set for himself. I'd be surprised if he didn't play in the NHL next season with how weak the Pens are supposed to be, so we'll see how his rookie year goes.
Swanson is another late round pick that my model loved last year, similar to Kale Dach this year. His season was a slight disappointment, but there's always time to bounce back for these young players. You can include Travis Hayes in that late round steal category as well. He's another model favorite relative to his draft position.
There are way more names than space I have to mention them. These guys project to be depth players for now. Some of these players are Bill Zonnon, Ville Koivunen, Mikhail Ilyin, and Charlie Trethewey. Overall, the Pens' pool lacks star power but has plenty of depth. The star power will come with high selections and some seasons spent at the bottom of the standings.
#9 - New York Islanders
Winter Ranking: 25th
The Islanders' organizational pivot from one of the worst futures to now a good one over the past year has been remarkable. It started with the Cole Eiserman selection last summer, which still looks like a steal. He's my model's favorite Isles prospect, and it sees him as a possible star. In other words, a potential first liner but more likely to be a great top six forward. His goal scoring ability is undeniable, and now it's just up to see how the rest of his game translates to the pros.
Everybody knows Matthew Schaefer is an incredible player. It's why he was selected first overall. My model is a little lower on him, but that's because he was only able to get 17 games of elite play in last year. That was enough to convince scouts, not a stats based model. He just signed his ELC, so the expectation is that he'll be playing in the NHL next year. That will shift his odds dramatically, and I'm very excited to see that play out.
When the Isles moved out Noah Dobson, they picked up two 1st round picks in addition to Emil Heinemen. The players they selected with those picks are their 3rd and 4th best prospects in Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson. Both seem like great pick ups and give the Isles' pool depth outside of their stars up top, which is key to building a winning core.
Calum Ritchie was also a recent pick-up at the trade deadline in the Brock Nelson deal. He projects as a middle six guy and should be a key contributor on Long Island soon. The Isles also have solid depth prospects in their pool with guys like Bednarik, Laurila, Kvasnicka, Veilleux, and Romano. As the Isles' rebuild begins, their prospect pool is now in a great place for their new management group to have fun with.
#10 - Philadelphia Flyers
Winter Ranking: 17th
The Flyers' pool has seen some significant growth since the winter, mainly due to their best two prospects both coming from their 2025 class. Porter Martone is my model's second best player from the 2025 Draft, and Philly was lucky enough to select him at 6th overall. He projects as a first line winger production wise and when you factor in his power forward playstyle as well, Martone is a player to get very excited about.
Jack Murtagh is another model favorite from the 2025 Draft. My model gave him the 12th best projection in the entire draft. He's a great pickup for where the Flyers were able to get him, even if he doesn't become much. Jett Luchanko was seen as a reach last summer, but after a solid year in the OHL, the pick doesn't look as bad anymore. It now seems like he'll become a middle six guy for the Flyers.
Denver Barkey has been spectacular in the OHL over the past few seasons and now seems finally ready to make the jump to the pros, specifically with Lehigh Valley in the AHL. If he makes it to the NHL, it'll likely be in a 3rd line role, but we'll see how this upcoming season goes for him.
While the Flyers did pick up some model favorites this summer, they also made a lot of picks that the model didn't like as much. While both Jack Nesbitt and Carter Amico crack the top ten of Flyers prospects, they both project as depth players. Philly has enough talent up top where it won't hurt them too much, but it's picks like that which are keeping the Flyers from having a top five pool.
#11 - Chicago Blackhawks
Winter Ranking: 9th
The Blackhawks have been in the NHL's basement for a long time, and because of that, they've been able to build a very solid prospect pool. Their pool just missed the top ten, but their U24 core is among the NHL's top five, a large part because of their franchise player in Connor Bedard.
The guy Chicago is counting on to be their #1 defenseman is Artyom Levshunov, and among their pool, he's got the best shot. His NCAA draft year production had him projected very high, but his odds did dip this season after a slow start in the AHL. He was able to play 18 games in the NHL and looked solid, which is helping his projection. His comps still feature players like Charlie McAvoy and Mikhail Sergachev, so if you're a Chicago fan, there's still plenty to get excited about.
Roman Kantserov is a prospect out of Russia who's starting to get a lot more attention thanks to a stellar KHL year. At this point, he projects as a middle six forward when he comes over to North America. That might happen as soon as the end of this season, his KHL contract expires after this year.
My model isn't the highest on Frondell, but it still sees a future NHLer in him. He won't be the highest point producer, but he'll still be a very impactful piece for the Hawks, thus the impact forward projection. Chicago has a lot of players in this tier, actually, with guys like Boisvert, Mustard, Moore, and Rinzel. There will be a few more dark years in Chicago, but once these young players make the jump, the Blackhawks will have a competitive and exciting team.
#12 - Seattle Kraken
Winter Ranking: 2nd
Seattle just missed out on the first overall spot in the last edition of these rankings, but this time around, they find themselves lower and outside the top ten. They still have a great pool, but with some graduations and down years, it's not in the same place it was half a year ago. Their best prospect is a new addition from this summer's draft. Jake O'Brien is one of my model's favorite players from the 2025 Draft. His production has him on a path to become a top-six center at the very least, and with the tools he has, it seems like a very likely outcome for him and the Kraken.
Catton was #1 in Seattle's pool in the winter but finds himself 2nd today. He still projects as a dynamic top six forward. I think Catton is too good for the WHL at this point and should hopefully be playing somewhere else in the fall. He can't play in the NCAA, so I'm curious if he'll be able to crack Seattle's lineup out of camp.
Jani Nyman rounds out the top three. Nyman had a great rookie year in the AHL after a very strong career in Finland. He produced well in 12 NHL games last season, and I'd expect him to have a full-time role with the Kraken this year.
Outside of those three prospects, Seattle has a bunch of guys that look like possible bottom of the lineup guys. You could safely assume there will be few NHLers out of the grouping of players from #4 to #9. With a top ten U24 group, Seattle seems poised for a successful future. That is, if their current management doesn't handicap them too much with more terrible contracts.
#13 - Columbus Blue Jackets
Winter Ranking: 6th
While the Blue Jackets are technically fallers in this ranking, that mostly has to do with Denton Mateychuk's graduation. He was eligible for this ranking in the winter but since then has spent enough time with Columbus to no longer be eligible. Another thing of note, while I think most people will agree with this placement, I know most will not like how Columbus's prospects are ranked.
Jeremy Loranger is first, a name you know very well if you've been paying attention to my page this summer. I've spent a lot of time on him and explaining why my model sees him so high. The short way of putting it is that the BCHL is not as bad as people think, and Loranger lit it up like nobody has in a while. The only other players to lead the BCHL in scoring with the amount that Loranger had or more over the past few years are Bradly Nadeau, Kent Johnson (D-1*), and Alex Newhook. Not bad company at all...
Luca Marrelli is next up, he's a defenseman out of the OHL who's produced very well over the past two years. He'll be playing in the AHL with the Cleveland Monsters in the 25-26 season. Luca Del Bel Belluz had a fantastic second year in the AHL and produced well in limited time in the NHL. I'd expect him to earn a full time role sooner rather than later.
Cayden Lindstrom and Jackson Smith are both recent 1st round picks that my model isn't as high on. It sees both players as safer bets to be middle/bottom of the lineup players than stars. Lindstrom had a rough year due to injury, so I'm especially intrigued to see how he looks in the NCAA next year. Same thing with Smith, as both guys are CHLers making the move over to college hockey this fall.
#14 - Anaheim Ducks
Winter Ranking: 13th
The Ducks are in a very good spot for the future. While their prospect pool lacks the star guys of the pools ahead, they have the depth of the best groups. I wouldn't worry about the lack of stars. Those guys are already in the NHL, apparent by their #2 U24 Skater Ranking. Guys like Carlsson, Gauthier, McTavish (for now), Lacombe, Zellweger, Mintyukov, and Dostal are plenty for the next decade. Their prospect pool will provide them with enough depth to fill in the holes and build a very strong team.
On top of all the young defensemen in the NHL, Tristan Luneau seems poised to join that group very soon. He was incredible in the AHL this season after a very short NHL stint the year before. If he can become a top four defenseman in his prime, he'll help create an amazing top four with the three defenseman I mentioned earlier.
Drew Schock is a model favorite that Anaheim picked up in the 4th round. The road to making the NHL will be long as a later pick, but he seems to be closer than the typical 4th rounder. I really liked this pick by the Ducks, and if he becomes a 3rd pair guy, that will be great for Anaheim. The Ducks also don't need Sennecke to become a star. They clearly saw a fit for him in their lineup by drafting him earlier than expected. He projects as a middle sixer if he makes it.
Not all of Anaheim's prospects like Stian Solberg, Tarin Smith, Yegor Sidorov, and Lasse Boelius will make the NHL, but there's enough there to be confident some of them will. Out of Anaheim's entire prospect group, you can expect around 5 or 6 to make the NHL as full time players.
#15 - Minnesota Wild
Winter Ranking: 11th
Zeev Buium is doing a lot of heaving lifting for the Wild's prospect pool. He projects as a #1 defenseman and is the second best prospect in all of hockey in my model's eyes. Buium is an incredible prospect. He's been one of the best defenseman in all of college hockey over the past two seasons. His production has him being compared statistically to players like Evan Bouchard, Adam Fox, Zach Werenski, and Dougie Hamilton. Not bad company to be in at all. He had his first taste at NHL action in last year's playoffs, and I greatly look forward to seeing a full season out of him in 2025-26.
Don't let Buium's greatness make you overlook Adam Benak, Minnesota's second best prospect. Benak recently made the surprising decision to play in the OHL next season. He should light it up there and put his name on the map for a lot of people. I'd expect huge production, especially with the weakened OHL we'll see next year.
Riley Heidt was seen as a huge steal in the 2023 Draft when the Wild picked him up in the late 2nd. He was viewed as a late 1st rounder that year. This past year was not great for Heidt, he took a major step back this year production wise which severly hurt his odds. We'll see if he recovers playing in the AHL next year.
Spacek spent last year in the AHL and put up solid results for a young defenseman. If he makes it to the NHL it seems like it'll be in a bottom pair role, not bad for a 5th round pick. Yurov regressed this year in the KHL, historically not a great sign. He's projected to be up with Minnesota next year, where it'll be important for his development to have a strong rookie season.
#16 - Buffalo Sabres
Winter Ranking: 14th
For a team that's been out of the playoffs as long as the Sabres have been, you would probably expect a top five prospect group. The Sabres used to have that but now a bunch of those guys are graduated and should be contributing to playoff runs. What makes Buffalo... (special?) is that all that young talent with players like Dahlin, Power, Benspn, Kulich, Thompson, Quinn, Krebs, Levi, and more has not translated to any success yet. Maybe soon, who knows.
The best prospect in Buffalo's current system is Konsta Helenius, their first rounder from 2024. Helenius was a great producer in his draft year and made the jump to the AHL right away this past season. His NHLe did regress this year, but he still produced at a level that puts him on track for a solid NHL career. A positive step forward is needed to change the direction his odds are currently heading, but I like his chances.
Strbak may surprise some people by being ranked this high but my model is a big fan of the growth he's showing in the NCAA. If he keeps it going, he seems poised for a future with the Sabres. Luke Osburn took a big step forward this season playing in the USHL and Brodie Ziemer is still looked at well by the model after a slightly disappointing NCAA year after his NTDP production.
Noah Ostlund and Radim Mrtka are both former 1st round picks that the model isn't super high on. They should get plenty of opportunities because of where they were drafted, so we'll see if they can take advantage of that or not.
#17 - Utah Mammoth
Winter Ranking: 15th
Most new franchises inherit bleak prospect pools, but Utah is an exception. A lot of their prospects were selected as Coyotes, but their top two guys put jerseys that said Utah on them the moment they were drafted. The first of those is the most recent 4th overall pick in Caleb Desnoyers. Desnoyers produced very well in the QMJHL last season, on top of having what's regarded as one of the best defensive games in the entire class. For a team that already has Logan Cooley, he and Desnoyers will be a great duo in Utah.
Tij Iginla didn't play much this year due to an injury that only held him to 21 games. He did produce well in those 21 games though with an impressive 32 points. I'm not quite sure where he'll be playing next year, but if he returns to the WHL, expect him to light it up. Vadim Moroz is a prospect that I don't see getting talked about much. He had a great season in the KHL as a 20 year old and would get more attention if his rights weren't owned by a market like Utah. He has one year left on his KHL deal, and if he comes over, he could play crucial minutes right away for the Mammoth.
Utah's also got some former high picks who project as bottom of the lineup players. Daniil But, Artyom Duda, and Maveric Lamoureaux all fit this bill. You may notice another high pick missing from this top ten in Dmitri Simashev. His lack of production is worrying to me if he wants to become an everyday NHLer. Size and skating can only take you so far, and we'll see if Simashev's far is the NHL or not this season.
#18 - Boston Bruins
Winter Ranking: 32nd
Boston's pool has been one of the biggest risers since winter, climbing all the way out of last place to almost being in the top half. A large part of that rise is thanks to their 2025 draftees James Hagens and William Moore, who are now their top prospects.
Heading into this season, Hagens was the consensus 1st overall pick. His D-1 NTDP had my model comparing him to players like Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid. His draft year, however, was relatively disappointing. He still produced well, but his point-per-game pace in the NCAA took him out of the generational tier and even the 1st overall pick discussion. He now projects as a top ten prospect, exactly where he was selected. Solid chance to be a star, but likely won't be anything less than an impact forward.
The Bruins picked up Moore in the 2nd round of the 2025 draft, solid value for the projection that he has. He played well at the development program this year and will be teaming up with Hagens at Boston College this coming season. How nice to have your two top prospects playing right in your backyard.
Outside of those two players, however, there isn't much else for the Bruins to look forward to. As they enter a rebuild and acquire more players like Hagens, they'll climb rankings like these. This summer's draft was just step one of what will likely be a lengthy rebuild.
#19 - St. Louis Blues
Winter Ranking: 18th
St. Louis' pool is headlined by three similarly projecting forwards in Carbonneau, Snuggerud, and Dvorsky. Carbonneau is the most recently selected and the best of the three. After a great draft year in the QMJHL, Carbonneau was committed to taking his talents to college hockey at BC. Since then, he's uncommitted and now will be returning to Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. I'd expect him to absolutely light it up there as an 18 year old.
Snuggerud's college production has been all over the place. When he played with Logan Cooley and Matthew Knies two years ago, his production had him as one of the best prospects in the entire league. Once those two left, his totals regressed. He matched his old totals this year, only now two years older. He'll be in the NHL next season and projects to be a solid middle six winger.
Dalibor Dvorsky's development is very interesting to me. He's played in a different league in each of the past four seasons, something you don't see very often. We'll see if he makes that five in five by getting a good amount of NHL games next season or not. Logan Mailloux is also a notable prospect in the Blues system after being acquired from the Habs this summer. He didn't look great in Montreal and wasn't going to get an opportunity playing there. The Blues paid a decent amount to get him, so clearly they're confident in him turning it around. We'll see if that happens this year.
#20 - New York Rangers
Winer Ranking: 27th
The Rangers are decent risers from this winter's ranking which has a lot to do with the fact that their now 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 10th best prospects were all added this offseason. Starting with a guy they've had in their system for a while, Gabe Perreault seems ready to make an impact in the NHL. I didn't like how the Rangers handled his first few weeks in the NHL where they healthy scratched him after burning a year of his entry level deal. If New York develops him well (BIG if), Perreault could be a huge part of their core for many years to come.
Scott Morrow was acquired this summer in the K'Andre Miller deal, a trade many people like for the Rangers. There's a very good chance Morrow ends up better than what Miller will be. Add in the 1st and 2nd round picks the Rangers got on top of Morrow, and I love this return. Morrow looks like a top four defenseman, maybe even as soon as this year.
Spence was a major faller at the draft, surprisingly, and the Rangers were smart to pick him up. He's not the model's favorite, but still is seen as very worth the mid-2nd rounder. Both Eriksen and Othman have around 30% NHL odds. The only difference between the two is that the former was a 4th round pick and the latter was a lottery selection.
#21 - New Jersey Devils
Winter Ranking: 10th
The Devils used to have one of the scariest prospect pools in the league with guys like Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes, both now graduated. They still boast some solid prospects however, led up top by Seamus Casey. Casey's been a model favorite for a few years now and showed great potential this year. He split time between the NHL and AHL in 24-25, where he notably put up 8 points in his 14 NHL games. I don't know when it happens, but Casey needs to get a long term chance in the NHL. He's ready for it.
Hameenaho has been one of the best young players in Liiga for the past three seasons. He ended this year with 51 points in 58 games, a very impressive amount for a 19 year old. Ben Kevan and Conrad Fondrk were both selected this summer, and both project pretty similarly.
New Jersey was able to select Anton Silayev in 2024, which was one of the best landing spots for him. With Silayev's contract keeping him in Russia, a team like the Devils, which can afford to wait for him, are a great destination. He's not the highest producer, but because of his frame alone, it's safe to assume he'll at least get a shot at the NHL with a few games down the line.
#22 - Los Angeles Kings
Winter Ranking: 16th
Liam Greentree is doing a lot of heavy lifting for LA's placement here. You take him out of this group, and this Kings group looks worse than many of the teams ranked below them. Greentree is an amazing prospect to have. His production improved a lot this season, interestingly, though, his odds saw no change. All that tells me is that what he did this season is right in line with the development you would expect him to see.
Greentree is too good for the OHL and he hasn't committed to any NCAA program. He isn't eligible to play in the AHL either so is the NHL a possibility for him? We'll see but if he ends up back in the OHL I don't like that for his development one bit.
Ryan Conmy has been around a point per game in the NCAA for the past two seasons. Since he didn't improve on his 2024 production in 2025, his odds took a little dip, but he still projects as a solid bottom six player. Angus Booth's NHL odds increased a lot this season after playing in the AHL. He still has a ways to go until he gets to LA, but he looks like a possible 3rd pair guy one day.
#23 - Edmonton Oilers
Winter Ranking: 31st
I like what the Oilers have done over the past few months to bolster their prospect pool from one of the worst to now just being below average. The Savoie expierement seems to be working so far, he had a great AHL season and now seems ready for an NHL role. The knock on him is that his playstyle won't work in the big leagues so I'll be curious to watch how that goes for him.
Asher Barnett is a defenseman from the US Development Program who put up solid numbers. Picking him up in the 5th round is great work. Paul Fischer was viewed as a throw in by most in the Broberg & Holloway future considerations trade, but he projects as a possible 3rd pair guy. He's been solid in the NCAA and keeps progressing well.
Isaac Howard is another notable name, one that my model is lower on than the public, but seems in line with how NHL teams see him. Yes he won the Hobey Baker but he did it in his D+3 year with production not on par with winners of the past few years. It's still an impressive feat, and he seems destined for a solid NHL career but I don't see him as the top six forward that it seems a lot of people do. If Sam O'Rielly is the most the Bolts could get for him, I'd assume most NHL teams see him closer to how I do.
#24 - Vegas Golden Knights
Winter Ranking: 28th
Vegas has a reputation on how it handles it's prospects and for that reason this is probably a trade bait board and not a look into Vegas' future core. A lot of great prospects have been drafted by the Knights but few of them actually end up playing in Vegas, oftentimes getting shipped out for win now pieces.
So up first on the trade bait board is Trevor Connelly, who made an interesting decision to sign his ELC this offseason. After the disappointing NCAA year, he had most expected him to remain in college for at least another year, maybe even a few more. It'll be interesting to see how he does in the AHL next year and if that was the correct developmental decision or not.
Mateo Nobert is a model favorite from the 2025 class, and I'm happy that Vegas took a chance on him. His production was very impressive for a 3rd round pick, even if he doesn't become much, I still think he's great value for the Knights. Wozniak is a 2025 pick that my model wasn't as high on, but he still grades highly in Vegas' pool.
#25 - Tampa Bay Lightning
Winter Ranking: 26th
Tampa's prospect group lacks any potential middle six forwards or #4/5 defenseman, what I would consider the impact tier. What the Bolts do have however is a bunch of guys who look like bottom of the lineup players. This helps them climb above the other prospect pool basement dwellers who have similar amounts of expected stars and impact players.
One of these players is Dylan Duke who had a great rookie AHL year and even got some NHL time where he scored his first career goal. He'll likely be a bottom sixer if he sticks in the NHL. Rautianinen and Czata are both some of Tampa's 2025 picks who also look like potential bottom-sixers in the NHL. As Tampa's core ages, it seems like they'll have young guys to fill in the holes but will lack the more skilled guys to keep the cup window open longer, a window that already might be closed.
#26 - Winnipeg Jets
Winter Ranking: 20th
Winnipeg drafted Sascha Boumedienne in the late 1st this year after he lit up the U18s and had a solid NCAA season. He's a good prospect, but if he's your best, then you won't find yourself very high on a prospect pool ranking. Kieron Walton is one of the big risers from last season. He more than doubled his OHL production in the same number of games! We'll see if it's sustainable next season, where you could see some major movement in his odds if that continues.
Brad Lambert had a decent regression in his AHL production this year, and his odds took a hit as a result. He would have been the Jets' best prospect by a decent amount if we used last year's odds. I'm very curious to see if he can find a full-time role in the NHL this coming season since it doesn't seem like another AHL year would benefit him very much.
#27 - Vancouver Canucks
Winter Ranking: 21st
Vancouver had a rough season in 2024-25, and unfortunately, their prospect pool doesn't seem to be much better. With one of the weakest U24 cores in the entire league, the Canucks don't seem set up for much long-term success.
Tom Willander is a good prospect for Vancouver. If he makes it to the NHL, it seems like he'll settle in as a 2nd pair guy. Lekkerimaki's development has been all over the place, filled with large swings in his NHLe that make him hard to project. Kudryavtsev looks like a possible steal from the 2022 Draft with an okay AHL year, but already with some NHL experience. Recent 1st rounder Braeden Cootes doesn't project very well, which hurts, especially when a guy like Cole Reschny was still on the board.
#28 - Colorado Avalanche
Winter Ranking: 22nd
The Avs have been one of the best teams over the past few years, and it shows in their prospect pool. Their pool isn't great, but their U24 core is the worst in the league, not a great sign for when the MacKinnon-Makar era winds down.
Sean Behrens is Colorado's best prospect, but that comes with an asterisk. Behrens did not play in the 24-25 season due to a season-ending knee injury. As a result, I'm using his 23-24 odds for this. We'll see how he returns this coming year and if that knee will be a career-long issue or not. Dell'Elce is an overage defenseman selected in the 3rd this year, and Gulyayev is a former 1st rounder with limited KHL production the past few years. Other than those three players, Colorado's system doesn't have much else, including the recently acquired Gavin Brindley, which the public seemingly still values highly.
#29 - Toronto Maple Leafs
Winter Ranking: 29th
Like most teams down here on this ranking, Toronto's pool is highlighted by one good prospect and not much else. Easton Cowan is a very good prospect who's been fantastic in the OHL the past two years. He did seem like a reach when and where he was drafted, but has proven himself worthy of that spot thus far in his career. It'll be interesting to me to see if he finds himself with the Leafs right away or if he starts out with the Marlies.
Other than Cowan, Toronto has a bunch of players that look like lineup depth if they'll ever make it to the NHL. Their U24 core isn't much better than their prospect pool. Knies is Toronto's only U24 player who isn't eligible for this pool ranking, showcasing the lack of depth Toronto has in its system.
#30 - Florida Panthers
Winter Ranking: 23rd
This is the price you pay for back-to-back Stanley Cups and three straight finals appearances. All of Florida's best prospects come from late in the draft since they don't have the early picks other teams do since they're always going for it at the deadline. Every cup window closes eventually, and when Florida's does, it'll be tough sledding for a while.
Jack Devine is their top prospect, and even though he's produced very well at the collegiate level the past two years, he projects as a bottom-six player if he makes it to the NHL. Benning is an undersized defenseman who's been in the Panthers' AHL system for a while, and with every season that passes, it seems less likely that he'll have a role in the NHL.
#31 - Dallas Stars
Winter Ranking: 30th
Dallas's group got a bump from what would have been last place during the 2025 Draft when they picked up Cameron Schmidt in the 3rd round. He fell due to size concerns, but skill-wise, Schmidt is a 1st round talent. For a team that developed Logan Stankoven into a solid NHLer before trading him, it's a great landing spot for both sides.
Outside of Schmidt, there's not much here. Minnetian is a low-producing defenseman from the NCAA who played a solid role for the US at the World Juniors. Martino and Kyrou are both former NHLe darlings who still have some promise, but not like they once did. When Dallas's current core starts regressing, it seems like they'll be entering some dark times and a lengthy rebuild.
#32 - Ottawa Senators
Winter Ranking: 24th
Ottawa has found itself at the bottom of a lot of prospect pool rankings, especially NHLe focused ones. While there are some teams where you can assume they use and rely on NHLe models, the Sens seem to be the complete opposite. They seemingly always take non-NHLe favored guys with all their picks.
Carter Yakemchuk seemed to be the exception when they drafted him in 2024, but after a steep offensive regression this past year, he doesn't look as impressive as he did just one year ago. Jorian Donovan comes out as their second best prospect, which is not a great sign for the health of the entire pool as a whole. Ottawa's U24 group is stronger than its prospect pool, but it's still in the bottom half of the league. I know the Sens are seemingly finishing their rebuild and starting to contend, but with a young group as weak as this, I'm not sure it'll last that long.