Gabriel B
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Ukraine - June 12, 2024

Ukraine - June 12, 2024

Jun 13, 2024

The front overall remains fairly stagnant, despite both sides pushing in Kharkiv oblast. However, the front opened up more in Donetsk oblast, particularly around Ocheretyne. Russia previously exploited a weakness in Ukrainian lines here, and it seems as if Ukraine has not fully rectified the situation yet, though the influx of military aid did stabilize things for a while. Russian forces have advanced west of Ocheretyne into the settlements of Sokil and Novooleksandrivka. The latter is reportedly mostly under Russian control at this point, though I suspect the same is true for Sokil, as it was quite small; any Russian capture of territory in Sokil almost entirely precludes the possibility of Ukraine retaining a meaningful presence in the settlement, as it is literally one street wide.

According to Budanov, Russia is deploying their S-500 air defense system to the Crimean peninsula, in the wake of several Ukrainian ATACMS strikes which have disabled Russian air defenses in the region, and ahead of the delivery of advanced aircraft to Ukraine. Of note, Russia only has one S-500 battery, so to deploy it to Crimea (and away from a place such as Moscow, which Ukraine has struck before) speaks volumes as to the Russian concern over the peninsula, if Budanov's claim is accurate. On the subject of warplanes for Ukraine, Argentina today announced plans to send five Super Etendard fighters to Ukraine, by way of France, which would refurbish them. The planes are not particularly modern, but have adequate abilities when it comes to targeting air defenses, and they can also launch anti-ship missiles. In short, they are particularly ideal for handling a region like Crimea, but will be less useful elsewhere on the battlefield. France also has several dozen of these planes which have been decommissioned; assuming Argentina's discussions with France pan out, France could hypothetically transfer some of their own as well.

Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia today, in a list ditch effort to get them to send a delegation to the upcoming summit in Switzerland. Separately, it was reported that the number rod cohntries planning on attending has dropped from around 100 to roughly 75, in the wake of a heavy campaign by Russia and China to get countries to drop out of attending.

Ahead of the G7 summit, reporting has come out on the commitments expected to be made there. The United States is to announce a decade long security pact with Ukraine, which pledges training for Ukrainian soldiers as well as material support. However, it leaves room for future administrations to abandon the pact. The United Kingdom is expected to announce approximately $300 million USD in infrastructure and humanitarian support for Ukraine while the G7 as a whole is reportedly set to announce $50 billion USD in financing for Ukraine, derived from profits from frozen Russian assets. The aid is to take the form of a loan, effectively using the frozen assets as collateral. The assets themselves will not be transferred, and the G7 attitude is basically that they'll only be concerned about how the loan is to be repaid if the assets are unfrozen (they only generate a few billion in revenue annually).

The United States today slapped a series of sanctions on Russia, as well as on the governor of the Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, who is staunchly pro-Russia. The sanctions seem to have had a stronger than intended effect, with Russia almost immediately running face first into a currency crisis. Already, trading was preemptively suspended for three hours tomorrow morning in one exchange, at least one Russian bank will not hand out American Dollars, Euros, or the Chinese Yuan, and at least one bank is now selling USD at a rate of 200 per ruble, while (at least as of now) the official exchange rate is around 89:1. Social media has lit up with reports of long lines at banks in Saint Petersburg. Russia has faced such economic precipices in the past since the full scale invasion of Ukraine and pulled through, but typically the economic response was a bit slower, giving Russia a bit more time to react to stop the crisis. Tomorrow may be rather telling, with bank runs being a distinct possibility.

Armenia today declared that they will be officially and fully withdrawing from the Russian-led CSTO collective defense alliance, at an unspecified time on the future. The decision is unsurprising, but nevertheless momentous. It is not without precedent, as both neighboring Caucasus countries have previously abandoned the precursor to the CSTO due to dissatisfaction with Russian policy in the region, and Uzbekistan left the organization in part due to their regional aspirations. The declaration was also made the same day that the final Russian contingent in the Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan reconquered last year, left. With Armenian hopes of maintaining a polity for the ethnic Armenians living in territory internationally recognized as Azerbaijan dashed after Russia failed to uphold the ceasefire arrangements as promised, and with border demarcation now taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Armenia doesn't necessarily need Russian protection. While Azerbaijan and Turkey are hostile, they are friendly with Iran, but also with several key western players, such as France. Armenian's likely goal in the future is to speed run accession to the EU to the best of their ability, but this will be far from an easy, or quick process for them. For starters, Armenia has yet to apply for membership, though Armenia earlier this year stated they would apply this autumn, and the EU this spring reaffirmed that Armenia meets the qualifications necessary to apply.

Moving in the exact opposite direction is the neighboring country of Georgia, which has two breakaway regions which are heavily propped up by Russia. Reporting today stated that Georgian authorities, who have drawn massive backlash for implementing legislation mirrored off of Russian legislation, is seeking to reestablish full diplomatic ties with Russia, despite also being an official EU candidate.

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