Gabriel B
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Ukraine - August 01, 2023

Ukraine - August 01, 2023

Aug 02, 2023

Most of the front has seemingly ground to a halt. Ukraine and its allies are working hard to procure additional artillery shells, which Ukraine is burning through at an immense rate. They have also now committed a large number of troops (a western estimate had the number at around 150 thousand) to the Zaporizhzhia front, but Ukraine is still unable to make a major breakthrough. Russian sources have reported that Ukraine is drawing in additional reserves from Kherson oblast. Russia's own offensive has basically failed, and Ukraine seems fairly content to not risk a potentially costly push past the current line of contact in the Bakhmut region, instead opting to hold the high ground, perhaps waiting for the capture of Kurdyumivka. The recent storm also delayed offensive operations, and I would not be surprised if both sides have more or less decided to call it quits with major offensive operations until after this weekend, when a major heatwave is set to strike southern Ukraine. Many places such as Tokmak are currently predicted to blow past a hundred degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius). The extreme heat will make combat extremely unpleasant, not to mention the weather itself being possibly lethal to soldiers. The major blast of heat will likely help to further dry out the top soil of the former Kakhovka reservoir; as of now, only very light vehicles can hypothetically cross as the soil deeper down is still quite damp.

Despite the rough pause, there have still been some reported developments. For starters, both sides claim to have advanced to the east of Robotyne, and in ways that directly contradict each other. With current geolocated footage not showing an advance by other, I am sceptical that the current situation has changed much at all.

I have grown sceptical of the claims that Ukraine recaptured Novodonetske and Novomaiorske. Some of the sources claiming their capture yesterday have partially walked back the claims, and with a lack of any evidence whatsoever, I think it's more likely than not that the claims were premature. That said, Russia's positions in Novodonetske (if they are still present) are far from ideal, as Ukrainian troops can comfortably take potshots at all of the roads leading into the village, forcing Russian troops in the future to resupply the village by cutting through fields and forests.

Along the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian troops are confirmed to be around the perimeter of Andriivka. There has still been a total absence of footage showing any armed forces in the village, so I am increasingly confident that it is simply abandoned at this point in time. Some very limited advances north of Klishchiivka have been reported, but I don't believe that these are new.

The battle along the Luhansk and Kharkiv administrative border persists, but neither side made any notabke reported advances. Skirmishes continue, but it seems that at least for now, Russias major push and Ukraine's local counteroffensive have concluded.

While they happen intermittently, Russia launched a much larger than usual reconnaissance-in-force mission towards Chernihiv oblast. Ukraine repelled the mission without any difficulties, and there was no indication that Russian troops managed to reenter the oblast at all. It's a sign that Russia is hoping to see if they could expand the battlefield to the north after their Kharkiv/Luhansk offensive stalled out, but Ukraine's firm defense probably disabused Russia of that notion.

Zelenskyy earlier pledged to reopen the Black Sea corridor by force so Ukraine could continue exporting agricultural products by sea, and today was a step in that direction. In conjunction with a number of drone strikes on Crimea, a HIMARS strike against a training camp on the island of Dzharylhach (the largest in the Black Sea), and recent attacks on the Kinburn peninsula, Ukrainian naval drones attacked two Russian patrol ships,l far from Ukraine or its waters. The Sergey Kotov and the Vasily Bykov were both targeted. There have also been rumors that the Syrian cargo ship Sparta-IV was present; it has long been known as a vessel which smuggles weapons to Russia, and the ship itself has had sanctions placed on it by some countries. Russia insisted that they fought off the drones before they could reach the Sergey Kotov or the Vasily Bykov, but leaked audio from one of the ships (which one is not known) painted a different story. At least one of the ships was hit, and reported one death and five wounded. Both vessels are "Project 22160" patrol ships. They are small vessels, but extremely modern. The Vasily Bykov officially joined the Russian Navy in late 2018, and the Sergey Kotov was commissioned almost exactly a year ago. As of now, it has not been reported that either vessel (or the Sparta-IV) was damaged enough to sink. The attack likely triggered reprisals from Russia, as more drones attacked the city of Odesa, as well as the Danube river port of Izmail, right across the border from Romania. Russia also launched additional drone strikes against Kyiv.

Early in the morning, there were reports that two Belarusian helicopters, part of ongoing and previously announced Belarusian practice drills, crossed over into Polish territory. In a sharp difference from a 2015 incident in which a stray Russian warplane briefly crossed Turkish (and thus, NATO) territory and was subsequently shot down, the two helicopters were left alone. In fact, the Polish military initially stated that they hadn't entered Polish airspace, instead stating that it merely looked as if they had, because perspective from the ground towards airborne objects can be tricky. However, after online sleuths confirmed that the two helicopters had, in fact violated Polish air space, the Polish government all but admitted that they had failed to detect the helicopters initially and reversed course. They summoned the Belarusian charge d'affaires, formally notified NATO of the incursion, and declared that additional forces would be shifted towards eastern Poland. Belarus denied that their helicopters crossed into Polish territory, and accused Poland of using the incident as an excuse to deploy additional troops near Belarus. Poland's apparent failure to detect the helicopters is the second such incident that I am aware of in which Poland didt not immediately notice an aerial object cross into its territory from the east, which certainly explains their decision earlier this summer to spend a gargantuan sum on bolstering their air defenses in the future.

Surprisingly, this was not the only diplomatic row to erupt between Poland and an eastern neighbor today. The second incident was with Ukraine, triggering both countries to summon the other's ambassador. A top Polish government aide said that Ukraine should be more grateful for the assistance they have received, mirroring comments made a couple of weeks ago by the British Secretary of Defence, quite possibly leading to his announcement a few days later that he would eventually be standing down. The Polish aide also mused about extending the Polish ban on Ukrainian agricultural products. Ukraine sniped back, saying that they were grateful every day for Polish support. Poland then summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to discuss unspecified remarks made by Ukrainian officials which have allegedly upset Poland. Through it all, and even as the foreign ministries of Poland and Ukraine are openly feuding with each other, Zelenskyy has tried to smooth over relations. He referred to Polish support as a "shield" for Ukraine, and did his best to acknowledge that while there are legitimate political grievances, that they mustn't be enough to undermine the friendship between Ukraine and Poland.

Moldova is continuing to sever their ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States, moving to withdraw from agreements relating to intelligence sharing. Moldova's drawdown of involvement with the organization will be a very long one, but they are largely starting with the national security related processes first. And in the meantime, they are literally building bridges with their neighbors. Ukraine and Moldova have agreed to establish a new bridge, in northern Moldova, north of the breakaway and Russian occupied region of Transnistria.

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